The Connecticut Sun (2-11) and Golden State Valkyries (6-6) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. EDT at Chase Center in San Francisco, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on NBCS-BOS.
The Valkyries are favored by -10 on the spread, with the over/under set at 154.5 (-110o / -110u). The Valkyries are a -450 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +340 to pull off the upset.
Let’s get into my Sun vs. Valkyries prediction and WNBA picks.
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Sun vs. Valkyries Odds, Pick
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- Sun vs. Valkyries Spread: Valkyries -10 (-107 ), Sun +10 (-112)
- Sun vs. Valkyries Over/Under: 154.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Sun vs. Valkyries Moneyline: Sun +340, Valkyries -450
- Sun vs. Valkyries Best Bet: Valkyries -10.5
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Seemingly nothing is going right for the Sun right now. Connecticut has lost five in a row and is at the bottom of the WNBA standings.
The Sun are coming off a close, three-point loss to the Wings and although they covered that game, the losses are piling up and this four-game road trip — which begins tonight at Golden State — won’t do the team any favors.
On the other hand, Golden State is impressing in its debut season. The Valkyries have won four of five, are coming off an upset win over the Fever and are an impressive 8-4 against the spread.
Golden State has played well against the number all season and this looks like another favorable spot. So, let’s take a closer look at the Bet Labs system play on the Valkyries for tonight’s game.
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This system identifies value in regular season WNBA games in which a non-playoff team from last season is favored over a team that made the playoffs. The assumption is that the market undervalues current-year improvements for the non-playoff team.
The edge is further amplified in high-total games (158-188), which is often a sign of pace or scoring confidence, that is typically associated with better teams. However, in this spot, the lesser-known favorite may be more explosive than assumed and this mispricing creates a spread edge for the non-playoff favorite.
Since it was created, this system has gone 152-120-2 (56%) and produced an 8% ROI.
Best Bet: Valkyries -10.5
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