The Connecticut Sun (2-13) and Seattle Storm (9-6) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Wash. The game will be broadcast live on ION.
The Storm are favored by -18.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 156.5 (-109o / -111u). The Storm are a -3000 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +1300 to pull off the upset.
Let’s get into my Sun vs. Storm prediction and WNBA picks.
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Sun vs. Storm Odds, Pick
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- Sun vs. Storm Spread: Storm -20 (-110 ), Sun +20 (-110)
- Sun vs. Storm Over/Under: 156.5 (-109o / -111u)
- Sun vs. Storm Moneyline: Sun +1300, Storm -3000
- Sun vs. Storm Best Bet: Sun +20
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Things seemingly couldn’t be going much worst for the Sun, who have lost seven straight and now have to face a Seattle team that has won three of four and is 5-3 at home.
Connecticut, playing its third consecutive road game, has lost by a combined 50 points over its past two games and will be without Marina Mabrey, their second leading scorer, who averages 15.2 points per game.
That puts a lot of pressure on Tina Charles (16.2 points per game on average), who is coming off an 18-point performance against the Aces.
The Storm are coming off a home loss to the Fever, but are healthier and more talented the Connecticut. Seattle is led by Skylar Diggins’ 18.7 points per game and Nneka Ogwumike’s 8.2 rebounds per game.
The Storm should certainly win this game and betting them to cover is defensible, but there is a Bet Labs’ system that suggests backing the Sun. Let’s dive in.
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This strategy plays on the perception that “bad” teams should be avoided when coming off a loss.
When such teams are large underdogs, it’s often because they were recently blown out or are on a cold streak. However, this system finds value in the market’s overreaction. The public tends to pile onto fading weak teams after a loss, which leads to artificially widened spreads — ideal for covering. These teams often fight harder than expected in the follow-up game and, as a result, are able to the margin within the number.
Overall, this system is 182-124-4 (59%) and has generated a 15% ROI. This season, it has generated a 19% ROI and has cashed 63% of its picks (10-6).
[betlabsembed systemid=”1479178″ systemname=”Evan Abrams – Bet Bad Teams Off Loss as Big Dogs” leaguename=”wnba” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20team’s%20previous%20game%20margin%20is%20between%20-100%20and%20-1%22%2C%22the%20spread%20is%20between%2011.5%20and%20100%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$4,517″ record=”182-125-4″ winpct=”59%”][/betlabsembed]
Best Bet: Sun +20
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