Connecticut vs. Minnesota Odds
| Sun Odds | -118 |
| Lynx Odds | -104 |
| Over/Under | 160.5 |
| Date | Friday, July 22 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
*Odds via FanDuel as of Friday afternoon
The Action Network has developed a historically profitable betting system that jibes with this WNBA game on Friday night.
If you had bet $100 on the moneyline for the 244 WNBA games that have fit this system since 2005, you’d be up $3,422.50.
That’s over $200 per year, good for a 14% return on investment (ROI) — or 14 cents in profit per dollar wagered over a lengthy sample size.
Only about 15 WNBA contests per season fit this algorithm, which factors in betting data across major American sportsbooks. That data is also proprietary to the Action Network.
Ten contests have already occurred this season, in which $100 per game bettors would have made $145, indicating this model still has room to run before it roughly evens out at the $207 per year profit it has averaged since the Bush administration.
These are the other games that have fit this algorithm in 2022:
| Date | Game | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 7/21 | Fever vs. Aces (-17) | Aces 90, Fever 77 — Loss (-1u) |
| 7/17 | Lynx vs. Mystics (-5) | Mystics 70, Lynx 57 — Win (.91u) |
| 7/7 | Liberty vs. Mercury (-4.5) | Mercury 84, Liberty 81 — Loss (-1u) |
| 7/3 | Aces vs. Lynx (+5) | Lynx 102, Aces 71 — Win (.91u) |
| 6/21 | Mystics vs. Sparks (+2.5) | Sparks 84, Mystics 82 — Win (.91u) |
| 6/14 | Storm vs. Lynx (+8) | Storm 81, Lynx 79 — Win (+.91u) |
| 6/7 | Dream vs. Storm (-8) | Storm 72, Dream 60 — Win (+.91u) |
| 5/26 | Wings vs. Sun (-8.5) | Sun 99, Wings 68 — Win (+.91u) |
| 5/17 | Dream vs. Fever (PK) | Dream 101, Fever 79 — Loss (-1u) |
| 5/13 | Fever vs. Liberty (-6) | Fever 92, Liberty 86 — Loss (-1u) |
WNBA Betting System Picks for Friday
This algorithm targets losing home teams that are facing off against tired visitors — but ones that have performed well against the spread in recent games.
The visiting team needs to have played at least three games over the last seven days in order to fade. In the WNBA, with matches typically well spread apart, that’s a substantial amount of gameplay.
The visitor also needs to have won its last one, two, three or four straight games ATS. Retail bettors love these sorts of teams — the ones on a run.
And our home team needs to have a poor ATS record on the season.
The public tends to fade these types of teams. Sharp bettors understand, though, that ultimately teams positively regress to a roughly 50% mean ATS.
The actually number for the spread doesn’t matter — just these aforementioned parameters.
For this contest between the Sun and Lynx, these trends fit Minnesota’s spread. The best price on the market is with FoxBet at -1 (+100). But that sportsbook is only located in New Jersey, Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
If you’re located outside of those states, go with BetMGM’s line at -1.5 (+105) or FanDuel’s line at pick ’em.
Since 2005, these teams like the Lynx — under these specific parameters — have won 58.6% of the time with a return on investment of 14% over an extended sample size.
But while today might be the day to cash in, please keep in mind that the $207 per year profit is accrued over a season-long sample size.
The best way to maximize that full 14% ROI is to bet on every game that fits this system for the remainder of the season. About four more games will fit this framework in 2022.
PRO Picks: Lynx -1 (+100) | Lynx -1.5 (+105) | Lynx Pick’em (-104)