The New York Liberty (17-9) and Connecticut Sun (4-21) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. The game will be broadcast live on ION.
The Liberty are favored by -11.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 170.5 (-111o / -110u). The Liberty are a -625 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +450 to pull off the upset.
Let’s get into my Liberty vs. Sun predictions and WNBA picks.
Liberty vs. Sun Odds, Pick
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- Liberty vs. Sun Spread: Liberty -11.5 (-105), Sun +11.5 (-115)
- Liberty vs. Sun Over/Under: 170.5 (-111o / -110u)
- Liberty vs. Sun Moneyline: Liberty -625, Sun +450
- Liberty vs. Sun Best Bet: Marina Mabrey Points Prop Pick
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The New York Liberty come into this matchup in need of a win as they’ve dropped three straight. Well, they’ve been dealt the best possible matchup in the Connecticut Sun.
It may be an understatement to say the Sun have struggled this season as they are 4-21 on the year. The Sun is the worst team in the association by a wide margin. Their net rating is 4.7 lower than the Chicago Sky’s.
This matchup has a real possibility of being a blowout, which has limited the need for starters to play deep into games. We have seen this significantly impact Marina Mabrey, who has yet to play more than 25 minutes since returning from injury.
While she did post a 15-point performance in her second game back, she did it in 20 minutes. That type of efficiency cannot be sustained.
With her minutes down, it will only make it harder to go over this mark against a Liberty team that has been stout. They rank third in defensive rating, which is in line with their effective field goal percentage allowed.
The Liberty have been average against guards, ranking sixth in points allowed to them, but Mabrey has shown to be a streaky shooter. I mentioned her very efficient performance against the Valkyries, but that is far from the norm.
The higher-scoring outputs from earlier in the season have brought her average to 14.3 points per game, but her median output is 11.5.
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Almost everything in this matchup is working against Mabrey. Her minutes are likely capped due to her recovery from injury and the potential for this game to be a blowout.
She has not proven to be consistent and has a tough matchup in front of her against a Liberty team motivated to get back on track in a big way.
Fade Mabrey tonight.
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Best Bet: Marina Mabrey Under 12.5 Points (-110, Fanatics)
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