The Indiana Fever (6-5) and Golden State Valkyries (5-6) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at Chase Center in San Francisco, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
Let’s get into my Fever vs. Valkyries prediction and WNBA picks.
The Fever are favored by -12 on the spread, with the over/under set at 164.5 (-109o / -110u). The Fever are a -750 favorite to win outright, while the Valkyries are +525 to pull off the upset.
Fever vs. Valkyries Odds, Pick
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- Fever vs. Valkyries Spread: Fever -12 (-108), Valkyries +12 (-112)
- Fever vs. Valkyries Over/Under: 164.5 (-109o / -110u)
- Fever vs. Valkyries Moneyline: Fever -750, Valkyries +525
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The Fever, coming off a chippy win over the Sun, hit the road to face a Golden State team that lost to the Wings in its most-recent contest, but has won three of four.
The Valkyries are exceeding expectations in their first season and are 5-6, but may have trouble slowing down Caitlin Clark and the Fever.
Speaking of Clark, she’s been on an absolute tear since returning from injury.
The Fever’s superstar is averaging 21.3 points per game on the season and has put up a combined 52 in his past two games. In those games, Clark is 11-for-20 from 3 and has also tallied 15 assists.
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This strategy plays on the perception that “bad” teams coming off a loss should be avoided. When such teams are large underdogs, it’s often because they were recently blown out or are on a cold streak, but when the previous loss was by a modest margin, this system finds value in the market’s overreaction.
The public tends to pile onto fading weak teams after a loss, which leads to artificially widened spreads — ideal for covering. These teams often fight harder than expected in the follow-up game and keep the margin within the number.
This season, this system is 8-6 and has produced a 9% ROI. Overall, the system is 180-124-4 (59%) and has a 14% ROI.
Best Bet: Valkyries +12.5
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