Tag: MMPRO
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National Title Mega Preview: Villanova Seeks Betting Perfection
And then there were two. Tonight in San Antonio, we will crown a national champion in a game that features two red-hot teams. Michigan has won 14 straight (11-3 against the spread), while Villanova went 9-0 in March — winning all nine games by double digits. Nova will attempt to become the ninth program in…
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Ultimate 2018 Final Four Betting Guide: Predictions, Analysis, Trends and More!
Today marks the last time in the 2017-18 college basketball season that we will have multiple games on the same day. (I teared up typing that.) That said, it’s a bittersweet day, as we have two outstanding Final Four matchups that almost nobody predicted 100% accurately. (Only 550 brackets of 17.3 million entires on ESPN…
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The Final Four Hedge Mailbag: Best Options for Your Futures Tickets
From the first tip of the college basketball season back on Nov. 10 to the Final Four tipping off Saturday — more than 140 days — we are down to just four teams: Villanova, Kansas, Michigan … and Loyola-Chicago. Over the weekend, future tickets on some of the biggest power teams in the country —…
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Early Final Four Betting Outlook: Loyola’s Chances, One Seeds Clash
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have best-in-class sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox every day. Only three games left in a tournament that has given us a little bit of everything. We saw the first win by a No. 16 seed, epic Nevada comebacks, Cinderella runs, multiple buzzer-beaters and…
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Sunday Elite 8 Betting Preview: Beard, Brunson, and a Blue Blood Battle
By the end of Sunday, we will know which four teams will be left standing in San Antonio next weekend. The last two Elite 8 games have a completely different look than Saturday’s pair. The total sum of the four seeds we saw yesterday? 32. Sunday? 7. Three of the teams playing (Villanova, Duke and…
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Saturday’s Elite Eight Mega Preview: Will Michigan Roll to the Final Four?
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. You want chaos? We’ve got chaos. Saturday night’s pairing of Elite Eight teams entered the tournament with odds of 600-1 (Loyola-Chicago), 300-1 (Kansas State), 280-1 (Florida State) and 10-1 (Michigan) to win the tournament.…
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Friday’s Sweet 16 Situational Spot to Consider
Welcome to the weekend…things you can only say on Thursday in March. It’s been almost two weeks since the college hoops betting card warranted a situational spots article, but I found a few worth mentioning over the next two days in the Sweet 16. For those not familiar with situational handicapping, I included a glossary…
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Ultimate Friday Sweet 16 Betting Guide: Is Duke in Trouble as a Big Favorite?
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. In the second part of our Sweet 16 preview, we will comprehensively cover each of the four Friday NCAA Tournament games from all the angles. We will examine the matchups on both ends of…
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Friday Sharp Report: Which Sweet 16 Matchups are Attracting Wiseguy Action?
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. Yesterday was a solid day for sharp bettors. They lost the Loyola Chicago Over but cashed a massive cover with Kansas State (30% bets, 66% dollars, +5.5 to +5) and also hit the K-State-Kentucky Under (45%…
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NCAA Tournament Hedge Mailbag: Blue Bloods, Cinderellas and a Reno Ticket
More than 300 college basketball teams entered the futures market almost a year ago at this time and with two weeks left in the Big Dance, only 16 potential winners remain. Which means plenty of tickets look like this around Vegas right now … For the lucky people still holding future tickets in a…
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Sweet 16 Betting Prep: Refocusing on Five Key Statistical Areas
Happy Second Weekend! While today doesn’t have the same Christmas like-feel as the opening Thursday of the tournament, I still consider it a quasi holiday. In honor of the Sweet 16, I decided to rehash the five key statistics pre-tourney story specifically for the remaining field. As a reminder, the five areas I looked at were: Zone…
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Texas Tech, and Maximizing Value by Utilizing the Open Parlay
Over the past couple of days, I’ve told you why Kentucky is overvalued, how Duke should be part of any complex futures positions you’re taking and I talked a lot about different ways of playing the market. So now, I’m going to do something really simple. I’m going to tell you the one team I’m going…
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BlackJack’s Thursday Bets: Two Totals, Two Sides in Sweet 16 Action
It’s back, baby. The tournament. March Madness. The Sweet 16. All the insanity and all the ups and downs will be back in full swing beginning this evening. These games are important now, even more more important than last week’s contests were. These games signify a path to glory. A path forward. A path to…
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Thursday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Teeing Off on Kansas State-Kentucky
Sharp Report readers are in for a treat today. Not only do we have a trio of Sweet 16 wiseguy plays to discuss, but more importantly, they’ll be brought to you by the dynamic duo of Wake and Rake Kingpin PJ Walsh and Josh “Action” Appelbaum. Sports betting history may never be the same after…
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Mega Sweet 16 Betting Preview For All 4 Thursday Matchups
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. The long, tortuous wait between the second round and Sweet 16 is almost over. Cherish the games while you can, as we only have 15 left in the entire tournament. Sad! Just as everyone…
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The Biggest Weaknesses and Worst Matchups for Each Sweet 16 Team
There is certainly not a perfect team in the Big Dance this year, and the field seems especially wide open with Virginia, Cincinnati, Michigan State and North Carolina all losing in the first weekend. The Spartans were a rare team with a top-10 offense and defense, and they still lost to one of the worst teams in…
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It’s Time to Stop Assuming Kentucky Will Make the Final Four
As a nation, we’ve already crowned Kentucky. You may have heard: Virginia lost, Cincinnati lost, Tennessee lost and Arizona lost. We looked at the remaining draw — and saw the seeds — and we’ve called it. We apologized to Sister Jean in the process. FREE: The Story of Duke, the Inverted Middle, and a Different…
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Make Smarter Sweet 16 Bets by Tracking Sharp Money
Upsets, buzzer-beaters and busted brackets, the first weekend of the NCAA tournament was everything we hoped for as college basketball fans. But as bettors, the crazy start to the tourney might have put a dent in your bankroll. I was on the wrong side of three of the five worst bad beats. Given the unpredictable…
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The Story of Duke, the Inverted Middle, and a Different Way to Bet Tourney Props
I had a great bet for everyone. And then I didn’t. I had a great description, analysis, pricing. The works. But because I deal mostly with props and futures, the price changed, and all I have to bring you now is a good story. As Brad Pitt (aka Rusty Ryan) once said in “Ocean’s Eleven”:…
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Sweet 16 Vegas Rankings: Will Duke or Villanova Take the Top Spot?
It has been a wild ride from 351 to 68 to 16. Just look at Syracuse, which didn’t even finish in the top 10 of the final ACC regular-season standings, but will be one of the final 10 teams still alive on Friday night when it takes on Duke. This feels like a good time…
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Kentucky’s Historically Easy Path to the Final Four
A week-and-a-half ago, the entire college basketball nation sat back and watched the bracket get pieced together, alphabetically. One of the main takeaways? Man, Kentucky really got screwed. With Arizona and Virginia in the top half of its bracket, it appeared #BBN was going to have a tough time getting back to the Sweet 16, let…
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Bracket Simulations Reveal Five Sweet 16 Prop Bets Offering Value
There are many ways to bet on the NCAA Tournament. The spread and over/under are classic bets, but after 40 minutes of play the thrill is over. Those looking for extended action should consider prop bets that can keep you invested in the Big Dance until the confetti falls in San Antonio. Make Smarter Sweet…
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Most Overvalued, Undervalued NCAA Tourney Future Bets
Your bracket is busted and your favorite team is no longer dancing. If you are like me, you’re probably looking for a new team. The best way to have some skin in the game is to place a future bet, but which team in the Sweet 16 is worth a wager? Early Betting Angles for…
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Ranking a Stacked Group of Sweet 16 Point Guards
Earlier today, I ranked the entire Sweet 16 field from an overall power rankings perspective. Given how important guard play is the deeper we get into the tourney and seeing the plethora of point guard talent remaining in the field, I thought it would also be useful to rank the Sweet 16 point guards. 1. Jalen…
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Sweet 16 Early Action: Line Moves, Popular Public Sides and Heaviest-Bet Games
A wild weekend is over, and bettors have had a solid 36 hours to dive into lines for the Sweet 16. Much like the NFL market, some bettors like to pounce early, while others like to wait until the day of the game. Early Betting Angles for Every Sweet 16 Matchup Read now Using…
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Early Betting Angles for Every Sweet 16 Matchup
What a wild weekend. From the first win by a No. 16 seed in tournament history to SEVEN five-plus-point underdogs winning outright to multiple buzzer beaters. (I still don’t know how Michigan beat Houston). Now that your bracket is probably busted like mine, it’s time to solely focus on the Sweet 16 betting matchups. Moose…
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10,000 More Simulations: Our Final Four and Title Favorites
No. 1 seeds Virginia and Xavier, gone. No. 2 seeds North Carolina and Cincinnati, sent packing. No. 3 seeds Michigan State and Tennessee, thanks for playing. A chaotic first weekend in the NCAA Tournament has delivered an unpredictable Sweet 16. The probability of these exact teams making it past the Round of 32 was approximately…
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Ultimate Betting Preview for Sunday’s 8 Second-Round Games
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. Only one more day left of this epic weekend so let’s make it count. All eyes will be on how UMBC follows up its historic win, but there are also seven other intriguing matchups…
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How Are Sharps Betting Sunday’s Marshall-West Virginia Matchup?
After upsetting Wichita State, Marshall finds itself pitted against an in-state “rival” in West Virginia. In this all-Mountain State matchup, sportsbooks opened with West Virginia listed as an 11.5-point favorite. Ultimate Betting Preview for Sunday’s 8 Second-Round Games Read now Despite their close proximity, the two schools haven’t actually seen one another since 2015.…
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This Profitable Betting System Has Matches in Six Sunday Tourney Games
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. Villanova (-11.5), Duke (-9.5), Kentucky (-5.5) — big favorites on Saturday in the Round of 32 — all won and covered as public sides. Is this the exception or rule during the first weekend of March…
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Mega Betting Guide for All 8 Saturday Tourney Matchups
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. The best two-day stretch in all of sports will unfortunately come to an end later tonight. The good news is we get two full days of Round of 32 action to sort out which…
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10,000 More Simulations: The Biggest Winners After the Round of 64
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. About six months ago, I took a trip to Vegas with a couple of my college friends. For a couple of them, it was their first time in Vegas, and by the end of…
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Why New Mexico State Can Beat Clemson, Plus More Friday Analysis
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. After zero overtimes in last year’s tournament, we got one in the first game this year. We might be in for a special month of madness. For Friday’s betting analysis, I will take an in-depth look…
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Which Friday NCAA Tournament Bets are Being Overvalued by the Public?
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. Public bettors did not make out well in the matchups we highlighted Thursday, easily losing with Gonzaga and St. Bonaventure while likely losing with South Dakota State as well, considering the number was +7.5 at the time…
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Friday Mega Preview: Predictions, Analysis for Every Tourney Game
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. Merry Christmas again. See, in this world, we get back-to-back days of Christmas. Let’s dive right in and see what Santa has in store for us on Friday. In today’s NCAA Tournament betting guide,…
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Friday’s Sharp Report: Wiseguys Pounding Two NCAA Tourney Unders
Great news: This article, which usually requires a subscription, is FREE to read today. Enjoy! While you’re here, take a look at our gambling-focused tools and content, and sign up for our daily email newsletter to get the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. Just like Thursday’s round of 64 matchups, professionals…
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The Hardest, Easiest Paths for the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 Seeds
Great news: This article, which usually requires a subscription, is FREE to read today. Enjoy! While you’re here, take a look at our gambling-focused tools and content, and sign up for our daily email newsletter to get the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. Here’s the beauty of March Madness and hard-core…
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Why Bettors Should Avoid Trendy NCAA Tournament Underdogs
With the NCAA Tournament field set, many folks likely have upsets pegged before even looking at the actual matchups. Perhaps they think they’re being original for their choices. The 12 over the 5-seed … some 10s over 7s. Your basic upsets, you know the drill. Enter Our Bracket Challenge: First Place Wins $3,000! Submit your…
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Why Is Contrarian Betting so Profitable During the NCAA Tournament?
The NCAA Tournament, like the Super Bowl, ropes in even the most casual of bettors. With bracket pools, early tip-offs and a slew of games to choose from, it’s a natural time for those who don’t normally bet to get back in the game. Ranking the Upset Chances of Every 13-15 Seed Read now …
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Ranking Every Head Coach’s NCAA Tournament Track Record
Rankings coaches in March Madness is tough. First, there’s a ton of them. Second, and more importantly, different coaches have different expectations. Tom Izzo, head coach of Michigan State, for example, is a No. 3 seed and thus should win more games this tournament than Ron Hunter, whose Georgia State squad is a No. 15 seed…
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Thursday’s Sharp Report: Three NCAA Tournament Bets Pros Are Making
The Round of 64 is unique in that professional bettors have the luxury of four to five days to monitor, analyze and get down on the best numbers the market has to offer. Additionally, an exponential increase in public money flowing on these games can offer even more valuable opportunities than normal regular-season slates. Ultimate…
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Thursday’s Most Popular Public NCAA Tourney Bets: Two Dogs Getting Heavy Action
It’s finally here. The first game of the 2018 NCAA tournament (sorry, the First Four doesn’t count) is set to tip at 12:15 p.m. ET. Because lines have been out since Sunday night, there’s been plenty of time for recreational bettors to reload sportsbook balances and start firing away on their favorite matchups. Not surprisingly,…
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Substantial Sharp Money Continuing to Flow on a Very Unpopular Favorite
One strategy that we have been preaching about this week has been “fade the trendy dog“. Betting against the public in the NCAA Tournament is also a profitable strategy and this particular game tackles both at once. Ultimate Guide to Betting All 16 Thursday NCAA Tourney Games Read now It took a few days, but…
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BlackJack Fletcher’s Favorite Bets: Analyzing Day 1 of the Tourney
Merry Christmas, ladies and gentlemen. If you are a sports fan, a gambler or even an adrenaline junkie, these next couple of days are like Christmas morning. We wake up, run to the television and prepare to spend the next 12 hours in pure basketball bliss. There will be excitement, there will be glory, there…
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Ultimate Guide to Betting All 16 Thursday NCAA Tourney Games
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. Merry Christmas to all and to all a good day of picking winners in the opening round of the greatest two days in sports. Let’s dive right into our NCAA Tournament betting guide for…
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NCAA Thursday Four Pack: Why Kentucky Should Fear a Davidson Upset
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. We can all almost collectively stop staring at the clock, as the Madness is now only hours away. For Thursday’s betting analysis, I will take a more in-depth look at the following four tourney matchups: Davidson…
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Bales: 5 Tips for Your March Madness Brackets
One of my favorite people in DFS — Jay Raynor aka BeepImaJeep — is a super-creative tournament player famous for knowing next to nothing about sports. He’s learned a bit more since he started playing daily fantasy, but people are always shocked to learn that Jay, who doesn’t really have much interest in watching sports, at…
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10,000 NCAA Tournament Simulations Reveal Most Likely Champions
March Madness is finally here. The field is set for the 2018 NCAA Tournament. Virginia is the top overall seed and will play in the South. Villanova is No. 1 in the East region, Xavier has the top line in the West, and Kansas is tops in the Midwest. We know who is in and where…
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Ranking the Upset Chances of Every 13-15 Seed
The hook of the NCAA Tournament is the Cinderella run. Everyone wants to see Mercer beat Duke. Everyone wants to see Lehigh beat Duke. Honestly, everyone wants to see anyone beat Duke, but it’s that much sweeter when it’s a stunning upset. Below, I ranked every No. 13, 14 and 15 seed in order of…
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How to Build a Contrarian Bracket to Dominate your NCAA Tournament Pool
It’s bracket week, and if you are like me, then you have already filled out a couple of brackets to get the juices flowing. Now is the time I take a step back, analyze the bracket and start to find where I can gain an advantage in large pools. The idea is to build a…
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NCAA Tournament Betting Prep: Focusing on Five Key Statistical Areas
We still have three full days of NCAA Tournament betting prep time (and College Invitational Tournament betting). To start, I like to evaluate the following five statistical measures to identify key mismatches in either the first round or further down the line: Zone defense schematics Rebounding differential Free throw percentage 3-point shooting splits Turnovers per…
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How to Maximize the Odds of Winning Your Bracket Pool
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. As a bettor, you might ignore March Madness pools. You’re focused on spreads and totals in college basketball. This is a mistake. Value erupts from March Madness pools like Bobby Knight’s anger over officiating.…
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The 10 Coaching Trends You Need to Know Before Betting the Tourney
The 2018 NCAA Tournament field is absolutely loaded. When I say loaded, I don’t mean with freshman talent, blue bloods or Cinderella stories — even though that may all be true. I mean it’s loaded with serious tournament coaching experience. Among all active head coaches, the top seven in career tournament appearances, games played and…
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The Most Underseeded, Overseeded Teams in the Big Dance
It’s finally here, and we made it through whatever that selection show was. We had some big surprises with the at-large bids, specifically with Arizona State, Syracuse, Notre Dame, USC and Saint Mary’s. Arizona State was +270 right before the show to make it, and ‘Cuse was an unreal -1625 favorite to miss and somehow…
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Wednesday Sharp Report: 4 College Basketball Bets Attracting Wiseguy Action
Sharp bettors kicked off March Madness in style yesterday, cashing a massive cover (and straight-up win) by St. Bonaventure over UCLA. The Bonnies checked off every box that sharps look for: low bets (39%), higher dollars (52%), and smart money line movement (+3 to +2.5). Wake and Rake: Sharps Eyeing a Total in Wednesday Tourney…
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Why Pace is the Key to Betting Wednesday’s First Four Matchups
We are 24 hours away from the tip of the first round of the NCAA tournament. Most college basketball fans consider this the official start of March Madness. Play-in games be damned. What do you consider the official start of #MarchMadness? — John Ewing (@johnewing) March 14, 2018 But, before the 64-team field can be…
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Wake and Rake: Sharps Eyeing a Total in Wednesday Tourney Betting
While there’s still one full day standing between fans and the Big Dance, it’s not stopping recreational bettors from getting down, and getting down early, on tonight’s mixed bag of NCAA Tournament First Four, NIT and CBI action. It’s a very interesting time on the sports-betting calendar, as you’ll see public money impact game like…
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Which Team Has the Edge in Syracuse-Arizona State?
Thursday is almost here. We just need to get through one more day of meaningless NIT, CBI and CIT action, in addition to the two final First Four games in Dayton: N.C. Central vs. Texas Southern -5.5 (6:40 p.m. ET on TRUtv) Syracuse vs. Arizona State -1.5 (9:10 p.m. ET on TRUtv) I’ll spare rehashing…
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Do 12-Seeds Really Overperform Against 5-Seeds in the NCAA Tourney?
Now that the NCAA Tournament bracket has been released, workplace productivity will grind to an all-time low as water-cooler talk is dominated by Cinderallas, sleepers, busts and upsets. Enter Our Bracket Challenge: First Place Wins $3,000! Submit your picks! Conventional wisdom suggests that you should have at least one 12-seed upsetting a 5-seed, but I decided…
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Early Action Report: Sharp Money, Line Moves, Lopsided Bets, More
Much like an NFL slate, the NCAA Tournament offers bettors the chance to assess lines over several days leading up to the games. While some bettors will be holding off until the day of the action to place their bets, others are confident enough to hop on board early in hopes that they nab a…
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Early Betting, Bracket Predictions for All 32 First-Round Games
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. No Saint Mary’s. Absurd. Arizona State instead of Louisville or Notre Dame. Come on, committee. Michigan State and Duke headed for a Sweet 16 matchup? That will screw up some future bets. But, let’s…
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Wake and Rake: The NCAA Tourney Total Sharps Are Betting on Tuesday
Great news: This article, which usually requires a subscription, is FREE to read today. Enjoy! While you’re here, take a look at our gambling-focused tools and content, and sign up for our daily email newsletter to get the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. A matchup between Long Island Brooklyn and Radford…
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Predicting Tuesday’s NCAA Tourney Play-In Games
Time to find out what channel TruTV is on again. The tournament technically starts today (please don’t call it the first round) with the following two play-in games in Dayton, Ohio. LIU Brooklyn vs Radford -4.5 (6:40 p.m. ET | TRUtv) St. Bonaventure vs. UCLA -3.5 (9:10 p.m. ET | TRUtv) NCAA Tournament Betting Prep: Focusing…
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How to Take Advantage of Inflated (and Deflated) March Madness Lines
We believe in a contrarian betting approach. Why? Because more often than not, the public loses. Sure, they’ll win a few games here and there. They may even go on an epic week-long run. But over the course of the long haul, the house always wins. If it were as simple as betting every favorite,…
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Our NCAA Tourney Simulations Rank Top 5 Cinderellas, Sleepers and Busts
The field of 68 is set. We’ve simulated the NCAA Tournament 10,000 times to determine the most likely champion, as well as the teams that can make or break your bracket. Here are the top-five Cinderellas, Sleepers and Busts you need to know before filling out your bracket. Enter Our Bracket Challenge: Win Cash, Free…
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Best Futures Bets Based on 10,000 NCAA Tourney Simulations
The NCAA tournament tips Tuesday with the first of four play-in games. Villanova is the 4-1 favorite to win the championship, followed by Duke at 11-2 and Virginia at 6-1. UVA is the top overall seed in the bracket but are the Cavaliers undervalued by the betting market? Early Betting, Bracket Predictions for All 32…
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Which Team is Favored to Win the 2018 NCAA Tournament?
Since the 2018 NCAA tournament bracket was revealed, oddsmakers have been hard at work, not only analyzing and posting lines for each individual matchup, but also opening futures odds for every team to cut down the nets. Enter Our Bracket Challenge: First Place Wins $3,000! Submit your picks! The odds below represent futures odds…
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Our CBB Experts React to the NCAA Tournament Bracket in Real-Time
Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to have the best sports betting insight and analysis delivered to your inbox. Celebrate the official arrival of the 2018 NCAA Tournament by chatting with our college hoops experts as the bracket gets unveiled. Wes Reynolds, Jordan Majewski, Ken Barkley, Bryan Mears and Stuckey will talk the…