Bayern Munich (3-1-0) and Paris Saint-Germain (3-1-0) will face off today at 12:00 p.m. EDT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.
PSG is favored at a +120 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (+130o / -175u) goals.
Let’s get into my Bayern vs. PSG prediction.
Bayern vs. PSG Betting Analysis
After finally achieving their goal and winning the Champions League for the first time, PSG rightfully earns the title of favorites to go all the way. But that doesn’t mean it will be an easy road to lifting another trophy.
The German champions secured yet another, and record 34th Bundesliga trophy. However, it seems like they are still trying to figure things out under Vincent Kompany. Despite being lethal in offence, they are still struggling against top-tier teams.
Considering both teams are built to play offensively, this feels like it could be a goal-riddled game. Bayern sits at the top with City based on goals per match (4.0), but with Les Parisiens (2.5) in 6th place based on this metric.
Midfield control and spacing in transition will be the key to winning this clash. And this is where the European champions get the edge.
PSG’s double pivot will invite Bayern forward, bait them, and then snap into space down the flanks with Dembele and Kvara. With the Paris-based team averaging 72.0% possession, best in this competition, it’s understandable why they are slight favorites.
The Bavarians will be far from timid and hopeless in this clash. They have demonstrated their quality so far and are among the top three in relevant metrics, including goals per match (4.0), expected goals (10.0 xG), shots on target per match, and big chances.
The question is whether they can breach, defensively, the best team so far in this tournament. Les Rouge-et-Bleu have only conceded 0.3 xGA so far, keeping three clean sheets. They only conceded against Botafogo, when they also failed to score in the second round of the Group Stage.
Bayern vs. PSG Prediction
Pick: PSG to win and BTTS – Yes
My Bayern vs. PSG best bet is PSG to win and BTTS – Yes, with value on the European champions to take a hard-fought win.
Bayern vs. PSG Odds
[gamematchup league=”club_worldcup” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/100×100/20075-14.png” awayname=”Bayern” awayslug=”-” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/100×100/20165-17.png” homename=”PSG” homeslug=”-” date=”Saturday, July 5, 2025″ time=”12:00 p.m. EDT” network=”-” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+0.5″ col1awayline=”-160″ col1hometext=”-0.5″ col1homeline= “+110″ col2awaytext=”3.5″ col2hometext=”3.5″ col2awayline=”+130o / -175u” col2homeline=”+130o / -175u” col3awaytext=”+200″ col3hometext=”+120″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”bet365″ bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/860991_Bet365ALT.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gamematchup]
Bayern vs. PSG Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: PSG to win and BTTS – Yes
Leg 2: Over 2.75 Goals
Leg 3: Match – Over 27.5 Throws
Les Parisiens were the most complete team at this tournament. Luis Enrique’s side looks even sharper than in their Champions League run. Their positional play is suffocating, and they control the majority of the game, maintaining an average possession rate of around 70%.
Yet, despite the control, they conceded against Botafogo and also failed to score. Their last clash didn’t go well, with PSG finishing with only 0.77 xG, compared to Bayern’s 2.41. But with revenge on their minds and clear tactical growth since that night, PSG looks far more prepared this time.
The 1-0 scoreline from Bayern’s victory over PSG in the Champions League last November doesn’t tell the whole story. Despite the low number of goals, the match was rife with chances, particularly for Bayern, who registered 2.41 expected goals (xG) compared to PSG’s 0.77.
At that time, PSG had yet to perfect the playing style that has seen them thrive in both Europe and the Club World Cup. Fast forward seven months, and Luis Enrique’s side is operating at peak performance, having convincingly defeated both Atletico Madrid and Inter Miami. The defeat to Botafogo was no more than a bump in the road, as PSG has only failed to score in two of their 39 matches this year.
PSG and Bayern Munich seek to dominate possession and aggressively press the opposition high up the pitch. In matches against lesser opponents, the European giants tend to control the game, resulting in very few throw-ins. However, with both Luis Enrique and Vincent Kompany looking to take the game to the opposition, we should see an inflated count here, so we are backing over 27.5 throws as part of our PSG vs Bayern Munich predictions.
Bayern vs. PSG Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Bayern | Draw | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| 50.2% | 19.1% | 30.7% |
Projected Total Goals
| Bayern | Total Goals | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| 1.63 | 3.73 | 2.10 |
Bayern vs. PSG Projected Starting Lineups
Bayern
Neuer; Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Stanišić; Kimmich, Goretzka; Olise, Musiala, Gnabry; Kane.
PSG
Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha, Fabián; Doué, Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia
_InlineAdBlock
[procard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/736824_ActionPRO_promo_1500x844.jpg” cta=”Premium picks, tools & analysis” firstupsell=”Track & follow smart money” secondupsell=”Biggest player prop edges” thirdupsell=”Real-time expert pick alerts” buttontext=”SAVE 66% NOW!” buttonurl=”/pricing”][/procard]