Atlético Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EDT at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.
PSG is favored at a -112 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-144o / +107u) goals.
Let’s get into my Atlético vs. PSG prediction.
Atlético vs. PSG Odds
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Atlético vs. PSG Betting Analysis
PSG are on cloud nine coming into the Club World Cup. They finally secured the Champions League trophy for the first time in their history by beating Inter 5-0 in their last competitive match. Being crowned the best team in Europe arguably makes them the team to beat in the USA this summer. Luis Enrique’s side can make a statement by beating Atletico Madrid in their tournament opener, and we are banking on them doing exactly that.
Les Parisiens have been in inspired form since the knockout stages of the Champions League began. They have beaten the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal, Inter and Aston Villa on their way to the trophy, scoring an average of 2.67 goals per game in the process.
Atletico Madrid, on the other hand, have struggled away from the Riyadh Air Metropolitano in recent months. They have won just two of their last nine away games, scoring an average of 1.44 goals per game. The clash with PSG is, of course, at a neutral venue, but their form outside of Madrid will be a huge worry against the newly-crowned champions of Europe, who are in fine fettle.
Los Colchoneros beat PSG in the league phase of the Champions League earlier in the season. However, they rode their luck, managing 18 fewer shots than Enrique’s men. Since then, Les Parisiens have become a far more dangerous side.
The acquisition of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and the development of Ousmane Dembélé and Desire Doué have made PSG one of the fearsome teams in Europe. They have what it takes to make the most of their chances this time around.
Atlético vs. PSG Picks
- PSG to Win (-118)
- Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score (+100)
- PSG -1.0 Asian Handicap (+150)
Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals occurred in 22 of PSG’s 34 Ligue 1 games. It wasn’t a common theme in the Champions League, but it did happen when the two teams faced each other (1-2) in the group stage. Fortunately for Atleti, Angel Correa’s 93rd-minute strike won his team a one-sided contest in Paris in November: 2.2xG vs 0.67xG.
Atleti were the opposite of PSG in terms of winning this selection. The Spaniards were regulars for Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals in the Champions League in seven out of 10 games. Domestically, it was less frequent: just 10-of-38 fixtures. However, when facing teams at a similar standard to PSG, they conceded in four out of four games against Barca and three out of four outings against Real Madrid.
It isn’t in PSG’s nature to sit back. If the European champions take the lead, it should subsequently force Atletico Madrid into an open game if they are to go behind. As we’ve witnessed in their successful European campaign in 2024-’25, PSG are not a team to enter into an end-to-end spectacle with.
Atlético vs. PSG Prediction
Pick: PSG to Win
My Atlético vs. PSG best bet is to back the Paris Saint-Germain moneyline in the Group B opening match.
Atlético vs. PSG Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Atlético | Draw | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| 24.5% | 19.9% | 55.6% |
Projected Total Goals
| Atlético | Total Goals | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | 3.23 | 1.98 |
Atlético vs. PSG Projected Starting Lineups
Atlético
Oblak; Molina, Le Normand, Giménez, Gala; Simeone, de Paul, Koke, Lino; Griezmann, Álvarez.
PSG
Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz; Doué, Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia.
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