On Friday — just three short days ago — Brett Kavanaugh’s odds of being confirmed to the Supreme Court were sitting pretty.
He had a 71.4% chance to be confirmed (-250 odds) and just a 25% chance (+300 odds) to withdraw from SCOTUS consideration, according to the market.
However, over the weekend, a second woman came forward accusing Kavanaugh of sexual assault, this time during his college years.
https://twitter.com/NewYorker/status/1044157509920051200
The result? Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court odds plummeted across the offshore betting market.
Since Friday, Kavanaugh’s confirmation chances fell from the aforementioned 71.4% chance (-250 odds) to 46.5% (+145 odds). (All odds as of 2 p.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 24.)
For the first time, “No” has become the favorite (59.2% chance, -145 odds).
Essentially, Kavanaugh moved from a favorite to an underdog to be confirmed over the weekend.
At PredictIt, Kavanaugh’s SCOTUS stock has tanked considerably over the past seven days:
The odds of Kavanaugh’s nomination being withdrawn have also moved in a big way following the allegations, from a 25% chance (+300) to now being 43.5% (+130).