People who follow me know I love myself a good under.
You’d think that the Stanley Cup Finals is ripe for an under, featuring goalies Sergei Bobrovsky and Adin Hill playing out of their minds.
Florida’s Bobrovsky in particular has been insane. He has by far the highest goals saved above expected this playoffs — a ridiculous 19.7. That means Florida has let in almost 20 fewer goals in just three series simply by virtue of having Bobrvosky netminding. That’s compared to a league average goalie.
For reference, the second-highest clip this postseason is at 8.8 goals saved above expected by the Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin.
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Rooting for an under is less exciting, but there’s a slight edge in rooting for no offense — the public loves overs — and eight of the last 10 games for Florida have hit the under.
But I can’t do it.
Bobrovsky has been off for nine days. He hasn’t seen game action in over a week — an eternity for hockey players. If you know that meme with Danny DeVito vigorously shaking his head, that’s me right now.
That’s why there’s big sharp money on the over. The market hasn’t adjusted for lack of inertia — it’s treating rest like it’s a good thing, instead of what it should be: a small detriment.
I’m not expecting either goalie to be a disaster, but the lamp will be lit enough for me to take the over of 5.5 (-115) at BetMGM.
