Golden Knights vs. Capitals Odds
| Golden Knights Odds | -160 |
| Capitals Odds | +132 |
| Over / Under |
6.5
+110/-134
|
Coming off a shutout win on Friday, the Vegas Golden Knights head to Washington to face the Capitals.
The Capitals are riding high after winning three of their past four games, but now face one of their toughest tests with the defending champs in town. That being said, here’s a look at the odds, as well as my betting Golden Knights vs. Capitals prediction today.
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It’s no surprise that the Knights are stacked from top to bottom. William Karlsson is having himself a point-per-game season and both Jack Eichel and captain Mark Stone aren’t too far behind. Additionally, Shea Theodore continues to solidify himself as an elite defenseman.
The Knights are among the elite, but their 5-on-5 play isn’t what makes them stand out. They’re only ranked 17th in expected goals with a 48.96 xGF%. Defensively, they’re about the same, playing to a 2.65 xGA/60.
What makes Vegas stand out is its exceptional special teams. On the power play, the Knights score at an exceptional 22.5% clip. When on the penalty kill, they succeed at an 85% rate (eighth-best in the league).
Vegas has also gotten some incredible goaltending. Both Adin Hill and Logan Thompson are providing a sense of stability in net that the Knights haven’t had in a few years. Hill started the most recent two games, so I’m predicting Thompson to start tonight. He’s been steady with a .923 SV% and a +6.5 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
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Historically, Washington’s 5-on-5 attack has been among the elite. Well, this year, the team is unspectacular. Of course, Alex Ovechkin is always a threat as he inches closer to Wayne Gretzky’s goals scored record, but doesn’t lead the team in goals. That title belongs to Dylan Strome with six.
Behind Ovechkin and Strome, there hasn’t been much pop. Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson and Tom Wilson chip in and are tied for second in points, but there’s nothing to write home about there.
The Caps play at a mediocre pace and rank 22nd with a 47.98 xGF%. Defensively, they’re about the same and rank 24th with a 2.88 xGA/60.
Anytime Washington’s on the power play it should be considered a threat because of Ovechkin. However, it’s played like one of the worst teams, scoring at a lowly 7.9% clip. Luckily, the penalty kill has been a bright spot, succeeding 82.5% of the time.
It remains uncertain as to who we’ll see in net for the Capitals. Darcy Kuemper was hurt on Wednesday, but was a full participant in practice Monday. If I had to guess, I’d expect coach Spencer Carbery to hold Kuemper out at least one more game. In that case, Charlie Lindgren, who boasts a .927 SV% and a +4.9 GSAx, is likely to start.
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On paper, these teams play a very similar 5-on-5 game, though Vegas has phenomenal goaltending on its side.
I’m very wary of the Capitals and their inability to generate a sustainable attack. Everything I’ve seen from them suggests they’re quite vanilla and getting older. Meanwhile, their opponents had the shortest offseason of any team and still look fresher than ever.
It’s encouraging that the Capitals are on a bit of a streak, but I see that coming to a halt tonight. The Knights are clearly the superior team and I think they’ll win in regulation.
Pick: Vegas Golden Knights 60-Minute Moneyline (-105)
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