Flames vs. Stars Odds
| Flames Odds | +146 |
| Stars Odds | -178 |
| Over / Under |
6.5
+112/ -138
|
Here’s everything you need to know about Flames vs. Stars on Friday, Nov. 24 – our expert NHL preview and prediction.
The NHL resumes on Friday evening as the Dallas Stars host the Calgary Flames in a Western Conference tilt.
These teams squared off earlier this month, with Dallas claiming a 4-3 victory on the road.
Will we see another high-scoring affair, or will the defenses step up?
Let’s preview the NHL odds, and make a Flames vs. Stars prediction.
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Not much has gone right for Calgary this season, but the underlying metrics suggest that this club is due for positive regression on defense. At 5-on-5, the Flames rank eighth in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
Even if this positive regression doesn’t come to fruition, goaltender Jacob Markstrom has started to turn his season around. Over his past four starts, Markstrom is 2-1-1 with a .919 SV% and a 2.71 GAA.
Historically, Markstrom has fared well against Dallas, going 6-4-2 against with a .904 SV% and a 2.63 GAA over his past 13 outings. Meanwhile, the Flames offense has struggled to get things going.
They rank 26th in goals scored per game and 26th on the power play, which could be especially problematic against a stout Stars defense. At 5-on-5, Calgary ranks 20th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).
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Speaking of that Dallas defense, it ranks 11th in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. Backing up this elite two-way team is goaltender Jake Oettinger, who continues to cement himself as one of the league’s premier netminders.
Through 13 starts, Oettinger is 8-3-2 with a .920 SV% and a 2.45 GAA. He was in net for the Stars’ game against the Flames earlier this season, a game in which he stopped 44-of-47 pucks (.936 SV%).
There is no denying that Dallas is a very strong team offensively, regardless of whether it is at even strength or on special teams. With that said, its power play unit ranks in the top half of the league.
However, the Flames rank sixth in penalty kill percentage, so that aspect of the offense could be nullified in this contest.
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The main question in taking the under is whether Calgary can slow down Dallas’ offense. We know what we are getting from Oettinger and the Stars’ blue line, but can the Flames step up on their end of the ice?
I think they can, at least enough to keep this total from going over. This team is due for positive regression defensively and their sixth-ranked penalty kill should slow down Dallas’ special teams.
Meanwhile, Markstrom has finally started to return to form. At plus-money, let’s take a shot on this game being a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 5.5 (+110 at FanDuel | Play to +100)
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