tampa-bay-lightning-vs-pittsburgh-penguins-sgp-shots-on-goal-parlay-prediction-pick Pictured: Jake Guentzel

Lightning vs. Penguins Props, Parlay, Prediction, Picks for Sunday, January 12

As NHL action heats up, several enticing shot-on-goal props are available for bettors today, featuring significant edges that could prove profitable.

Our team utilizes both Action PRO Projections and Scores and Odds NHL Prop Models, which are proprietary betting tools developed by our experts. These models are designed to identify the best NHL prop picks by comparing betting odds to market conditions and then grading them based on the strength of the edge they offer.

The top NHL picks highlighted for those looking to capitalize include matchups featuring prominent players like Erik Karlsson and Jake Guentzel in an Eastern Conference battle between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Tampa Bay Lightning.



[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Erik Karlsson Under 2.5 Shots on Goal” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/570345_pens_200x200.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nhl/odds/pittsburgh-penguins” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]

First up is Karlsson, whose prop bet for the night is set at over/under 2.5 shots on goal according to BetMGM.

However, based on our comprehensive projections, Karlsson is expected to register closer to 2.3 shots. This discrepancy translates into a significant 6.8% edge on the under.

Therefore, betting on the under for Karlsson’s shots on goal presents a savvy opportunity for those seeking to make a strategic wager.


[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jake Guentzel Over 2.5 Shots on Goal” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nhl/100/tb.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nhl/odds/tampa-bay-lightning” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]

Another exciting NHL prop to consider is for Guentzel, who faces his former team, offering an added narrative to tonight’s action.

His over/under shots prop is also set at 2.5, but our models forecast a robust 3.5 shots from him.

As such, the over represents a large edge.

Guentzel’s familiarity with his previous team’s defensive strategies could bolster his chances to exceed expectations, and bettors should consider taking the over in his props for a potentially rewarding payout.


[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Rickard Rakell Over 2.5 Shots on Goal” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/570345_pens_200x200.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nhl/odds/pittsburgh-penguins” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]

Currently, Rickard Rakell’s prop for shots on goal is similarly set at over/under 2.5 shots.

Projections indicate that Rakell is expected to notch around 2.8 shots. While this may not appear substantial at first glance, it does offer an edge on the over, making it a worthwhile consideration for prop bettors aiming to leverage small advantages.

Additionally, I’ve combined these picks in a +542 parlay.

By following these NHL predictions and strategically selecting props with the greatest edges, bettors can enhance their chances of success in the competitive world of NHL betting.


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Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.


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