Colt McCoy

Redskins-Cowboys Betting Preview: Can Colt McCoy Keep Washington Close?

Betting odds: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

  • Spread: Cowboys -7
  • Over/Under: 40.5
  • Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Wednesday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: Despite getting only 42% of the action at the time of writing, the Colt McCoy-led Redskins have moved from +7.5/+8 to the key number of +7 at many books.

We haven’t triggered any sharp action indicators as of yet, but Washington is receiving 60% of spread dollars.

The over/under is too low for 70% of the folks who’ve bet on the total, yet the line has dropped from 41 to 40.5 (see live betting data here). — Mark Gallant

Did you know? Dallas is 3-5 straight up and 1-7 against the spread on Thanksgiving since 2010 (the season Jason Garrett took over as head coach). In seven of these eight Thanksgiving Day games, the Cowboys were coming off a straight-up win in their previous game. — Evan Abrams

McCoy has started 25 games in his career, throwing 27 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. He is just 7-18 straight up in his starts and 8-16-1 ATS, per our Bet Labs data.

As an underdog of 7 or more points, McCoy is 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS. — John Ewing

Trends to know: A popular betting theory is that teams struggle in their first game after a road trip. Since 2003, the Cowboys — who are coming off back-to-back road wins over the Eagles and Falcons — are 5-11-1 ATS (-6.3 units) when playing at home after two road games. — Evan Abrams

Dallas is favored by seven or more points for the first time since Week 15 of the 2016 season. Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 5-13 ATS when favored by a touchdown or more including 2-11 ATS at home. – John Ewing

Vegas report: “Bettors took the early money on the underdog — Redskins +7.5. Then we moved the line to Washington +7.5 (-115), and they took that as well, which indicated to me they were going to take any price above +7. What’s surprising to me is that the ticket count is very even [at our book]. There are only three bets separating the two teams last I checked. Considering Dallas has been hot lately and they’re such a public team I thought this would be a little more lopsided, but it hasn’t been the case.” — Jason Simbal at CG Technologies as told to Adam Staple

Biggest mismatch: Byron Jones vs. Josh Doctson

Doctson primarily lines up on the left, which means he’ll draw the coverage of Jones more than any other Dallas defender. This could be problematic for Doctson.

Jones is Pro Football Focus’ No. 2-graded corner in coverage and has allowed only 20-of-41 (48.8%) passes to be completed in his coverage for 230 yards (5.6 yards per target) with eight pass break-ups and no touchdowns allowed.

Unfortunately for Washington’s third-year draft bust, those numbers are strikingly similar to his own career numbers (48.4% catch rate, 6.4 yards per target).

The last time these teams met, Doctson managed only 42 scoreless yards despite leading the team’s wide receivers with six targets.

And it’s not just Jones; Dallas’ whole secondary has done its part, as Julio Jones is the only wide receiver to get into the end zone on Dallas since Week 7. — Chris Raybon

Which team is healthier? Cowboys

Both teams are far from 100%, but the Cowboys are at least expected to have most of their starters available this Thursday. Overall, only Tavon Austin (groin), defensive tackle David Irving (ankle) and linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring) are not expected to suit up.

Left tackle Tyron Smith (neck), right guard Zach Martin (knee) and wide receiver Michael Gallup (personal) are all tentatively expected to play.

Washington will move forward with McCoy under center after Alex Smith suffered a broken leg in Week 12. Left tackle Trent Williams (thumb) remains sidelined, while fellow offensive line starters Tony Bergstrom (knee), Morgan Moses (knee) and Ty Nsekhe (ankle) are banged up, as well.

The likes of wide receiver Jamison Crowder (ankle), running back Chris Thompson (rib) and cornerback Quinton Dunbar (leg) don’t appear likely to play on Thursday. — Ian Hartitz

Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ezekiel Elliott

DFS Edge: Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys have had their way with opposing front-sevens for most of the season.

Overall, Elliott is one of nine backs averaging at least 20 PPR points per game, and the Cowboys boast the league’s eighth-ranked offensive line in adjusted line yards per rush.

Up next is a salivating matchup against the Redskins’ 28th-ranked defensive line, but there is plenty of talent in the second level of Washington’s defense considering linebacker Zach Brown (No. 2) and safeties D.J. Swaringer (No. 4) and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix each rank among PFF’s top-five players at their position this season.

Zeke costs $8,600 on DraftKings and has a massive 33.8-point projected ceiling in our FantasyLabs Models. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Redskins +7

Colt McCoy isn’t that much worse than Alex Smith in terms of career yards per attempt (6.6 vs. 6.9), so the offense should at least be able to move the ball against the Cowboys’ talented pass-funnel defense.

The Cowboys do boast an run-blocking advantage at the line of scrimmage, but I’ll think the Redskins’ superior combined pressure rate and lower combined turnover rate points to them keeping things within a touchdown. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Under 40.5

I lean toward the Redskins, as well, in part because I’m expecting a low-scoring game. These are two of the NFL’s slowest-paced teams, according to Football Outsiders. Part of the reason for that? They both rank in the top 10 in run percentage this season.

Playing on a short week with a backup quarterback, Washington should be even more methodical and run-heavy than usual.

As an added bonus, this will mark the second time this season these two division rivals have played. I like backing unders this spot, particularly when you get to fade the public in the process (70% of tickets are on the over at the time of writing). — Scott Miller


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.


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