Commanders vs Giants Odds | NFL Week 7 Prediction, Pick

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Commanders vs. Giants odds have been pretty steady this week, with Washington laying a field goal on the spread and a low total that keeps getting lower. The over/under opened Sunday at 37.5 but was down to 37 as of 10:35 a.m. ET.

The Commanders travel to New Jersey to take on the sputtering Giants. Can this banged up Giants team rally together to defend home turf, or will the Commanders improve to 4-3?

Below is our game preview, with a Commanders vs. Giants pick for this NFC East matchup.

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While the Giants defense improved in Week 6, their offense was still dreadful, mustering just nine points against a Bills defense that was missing their three best players.

New York’s offense is clearly a bottom-five unit, and in my opinion, it doesn’t matter whether it’s Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. I think you can make a strong case that Taylor is the better option right now given his mobility and the dire state of the offensive line.

Taylor posted an impressive completion percentage over expected (9.4%), completing 77.4% of his passes versus an expected rate of 68%. Whoever is in at quarterback should be under constant pressure as this is a massive mismatch for the Giants offensive line. The Commanders rank around league average in pressure rate, but they should be able to find success going up against an O-line of mostly backups.

The Giants have signed three offensive linemen off practice squads this week as C John Michael Schmitz, RT Evan Neal, T Matt Peart and LT Andrew Thomas are all likely to be out. This is a disaster for the Giants and I expect Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat to absolutely dominate the trenches.

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The Commanders offense has been roughly league average, ranking 19th in EPA/play and in success rate. Sam Howell has exceeded expectations; he ranks 14th in adjusted EPA/play and CPOE composite score, according to rbsdm.com.

The Giants defense has been a disaster (29th in EPA/play and success rate). They’ve been awful against the run, ranking 31st in EPA/play and explosive run rate, as well as bottom five in missed tackle rate.

The defense was certainly better last week against the Bills, but I don’t put much stock into that given the situational spot of Buffalo traveling back from London.

We have plenty of evidence of this being a bad defense, and I think the Commanders will have success as long as Howell can avoid negative plays.

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The mismatch in the trenches between the Commanders’ defensive line and the Giants’ offensive line is too significant for me to have faith in New York as home underdogs.

I will be backing the Commanders at -2 as I fully expect their defense to dominate. The Commanders offense is good enough to post an average offensive output and that’s all they should need to cover.

I grabbed -2, but I would be careful laying any number past -3.

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