Action PRO’s anytime touchdown projections are already off to a scoring-hot start in Week 16, hitting Pittsburgh’s Cordarrelle Patterson at chunky 15-1 odds to score against Baltimore on Saturday.
Looking to today’s slate, five data-driven selections made the cut for Sunday. Picks start in the early, 1 p.m. ET window and run through Sunday Night Football.
As a general reminder, we take NFL expert Sean Koerner’s touchdown projections, convert those to implied anytime touchdown prices, then compare them to odds around the market. The biggest differences produces the strongest picks.
In Week 16, we spotlight low-profile running backs, a tight end you may have forgotten about, and an alpha wide receiver.
Touchdown Odds: NFL Week 16 Picks, Expert TD Predictions Sunday
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 1 for Sunday
Let’s start in the early window when the Lions take on the Bears at Soldier Field.
The Bears offense has looked lost, but something has to give Sunday in Week 16 against a banged-up Detroit defense.
Projections essentially feel it’s time for Bears RB D’Andre Swift to break his touchdown drought.
Swift hasn’t scored since November 17, and has one touchdown since that Hail Mary game against the Commanders cursed the franchise. However, Detroit’s injured defensively and the Bears are frankly due for more points.
PRO Projections give Swift a 57% chance to score in Week 16. We’ll gladly take the +165 FanDuel’s offering, as that winds up a great bet stacked up to our odds.
PRO Projections Pick: D’Andre Swift Touchdown (+165)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 2 for Sunday
For Cardinals vs. Panthers, Arizona WR Michael Wilson sticks out.
A +410 price for an anytime TD at FanDuel implies a 19.7% chance for a touchdown.
PRO models forecast Wilson for a touchdown vs. the Panthers about 29% of the time. The former Stanford product has four touchdowns this season and boasts a formidable mismatch in the red zone with excellent size and range.
PRO Projections Pick: Michael Wilson Touchdown (+410)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 3 for Sunday
In the late-afternoon window, Raiders RB Alexander Mattison is one of the strongest bets to score according to Action PRO models.
The Raiders are without Sincere McCormick, and Ameer Abdullah operates as more of the passing-down back. Mattison should get the majority of work Sunday against the Jaguars, who have been awful defensively this season.
FanDuel’s price of +135 implies Mattison scores about 42.5% of the time. Action PRO, meanwhile, submitted a 67% TD prediction for Mattison.
PRO Projections Pick: Alexander Mattison Touchdown (+135)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 4 for Sunday
In the same game, the final pick in the late afternoon window is Patriots TE Hunter Henry.
Henry tends to get overshadowed by the young Patriots receivers but could see a lot of action on Sunday with the Pats’ big underdogs. Henry’s +400 to score a touchdown any point vs. the Bills, or a probability of 20%.
PRO TD data tabs Henry for a score of 27% of situations, offering a great edge.
PRO Projections Pick: Hunter Henry Touchdown (+400)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 5 for Sunday
Rounding out the smartest PRO TD picks is Buccaneers WR Mike Evans on Sunday Night Football.
The alpha wide receiver’s heating up for one of the most underrated offenses in football and draws a solid matchup in a dome against the Cowboys without Trevon Diggs.
bet365 odds list Evans +105 to score in Week 16. Any type of plus-money price makes for a sharp play, with our numbers pegging the WR1 for a touchdown 77% of the time.
PRO Projections Pick: Mike Evans Touchdown (+105)
[appcard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/27440_NFLArticleCard.png” cta=”The must-have app for NFL bettors” firstupsell=”The best NFL betting scoreboard” secondupsell=”Free picks from proven pros” thirdupsell=”Live win probabilities for your bets” buttontext=”DOWNLOAD NOW” buttonurl=”https://action.onelink.me/qhpb/c4aa6ad8″][/appcard]