NFL Week 8 gets underway with the Minnesota Vikings taking on the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football.
The Vikings are 2.5-point road favorites against the Rams, with the over/under sitting at 48 based on the latest NFL odds. But a slick Thursday Night Football anytime touchdown pick might be the most appetizing value for savvy football bettors.
In fact, Action PRO’s data-driven touchdown projections, which are powered by Sean Koerner and the Action Analytics team, are showing a +450 pick for Vikings vs. Rams that’s not only the biggest anytime touchdown edge for Thursday Night Football, but also among the top edges for NFL Week 8.
Thursday Night Football Touchdown Pick
*Odds, projections as of Thursday morning
While Kyren Williams, Aaron Jones and Justin Jefferson are the most likely players to score based on Thursday Night Football’s anytime touchdown odds, Action PRO’s biggest edge is further down the board.
Minnesota wide receiver Jalen Nailor got off to a smoking hot start this season, scoring in each of the Vikings’ first three games.
However, Nailor has failed to find paydirt in the team’s last three games, which is likely why his +450 price tag is showing value when compared to Action PRO’s TD projections.
Specifically, our model projects Nailor at 0.25 touchdowns for Thursday night, which translates to a 3.8% edge when compared to bet365‘s +450 odds.
Considering Nailor has scored in half of Minnesota’s games, our data shows this to be a betting market overreaction, especially when you consider that tonight’s over/under is tied for the second highest of NFL Week 8.
PRO Pick: Jalen Nailor (+450) for Anytime Touchdown — bet365