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Thursday Night Football Picks: Touchdown Bet, Spread Prediction, Parlay for Week 16

PRO Projections and PRO Systems combine to build a simple, yet effective +1400 parlay for Thursday Night Football.

We’re taking a neat trend from our NFL betting models to make a prediction on the Broncos vs. Chargers spread, and adding the top touchdown pick from expert data projections.

Let’s check out a savvy same-game parlay for Thursday Night Football utilizing PRO insights.


Thursday Night Football Picks: Touchdown Bet, Spread Prediction, Parlay

We’re using odds from bet365 for Thursday Night Football’s parlay pick, which has two legs.

Not only is the shop running a safety net-style SGP promo for Broncos vs. Chargers, it also features the best odds for Action PRO Projections top scorer, which helps pile up the payout.

Why don’t we start with the TD prediction, which features a budding Broncos receiver.

Factoring in price, prediction, route participation, and more, the best bet for anytime touchdown in Broncos vs. Chargers is Denver WR Marvin Mims.

Mims is +550 at bet365 to score at any point on Thursday Night Football. Those odds imply about a 15% chance of a TD — much lower than the forecast of 23% from our Sean Koerner-powered NFL projections.

Mims may not have been valuable in the touchdown market earlier in the season, but he is now.

The second-year receiver didn’t see more than three targets in a game the first 10 games out the gates. He has since recorded at least four targets or more in four of the last five games, scoring two touchdowns over that span.

Mims’ stock isn’t only increasing as a receiver, he’s a threat to score in other ways.

He’s the team’s punt returner, and has also recorded at least one rushing attempt in five straight.

Our odds for Mims compared to the market creates a 4.6% edge and a solid leg to add to a Thursday Night Football SGP.

Moving onto the spread, the Chargers are an active pick for a 56%-winning PRO System in Week 16.

Or, rather, the Broncos are a fade.

The betting model “Fade Covering Teams” shows that NFL clubs in Week 5 and beyond covering the spread by five or more points per game, when facing teams with 0-60% win percentages, only cover roughly 44% of the time.

The Broncos are covering by nearly a touchdown, and history shows they’re more than likely due for regression — as soon as potentially Week 16.

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Therefore, taking the Chargers -2.5 rounds out the second leg for a +1400, data-driven parlay for Broncos vs. Chargers.


Parlay Price: +1400

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