Thursday Night Football features legit implications in the NFC East as the Commanders take on the Eagles. However, our near-60% over/under model shows that the best way to bet the Week 11 matchup is to target the total.
One of our various PRO Systems perked up with a Commanders vs. Eagles over/under prediction after accounting for the spot.
Thursday Night Football odds list the Eagles -3.5 and the over/under at 48.5.
Washington and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels have been the biggest surprise in the NFL this season. The Commanders are 7-3 straight-up, 7-2-1 against the spread and 7-3 to the over this season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, meanwhile, are 7-2 overall (5-4 ATS) and 4-5 to the over/under.
Check out Thursday’s model prediction, and why Commanders vs. Eagles is a direct hit on the over/under.
Thursday Night Football Over/Under: Commanders vs. Eagles Predictions
Last week’s Thursday Night Football game also featured divisional opponents on a short week. The Ravens and Bengals cruised past the highest total of the week (53) in a 35-34 track meet.
Thursday Night Football often brings out variance due to short weeks, but history tells us Commanders vs. Eagles may not be as high scoring.
PRO Systems “Divisional Unders” angle is active in Week 11, ultimately suggesting a bet on Commanders vs. Eagles under the total of 48.5.
We’ve learned that in Week 11 or later, when divisional opponents meet and the total is 45 or higher, the game finishes under the closing total 59.4% of the time. We removed indoor games and focused only on outdoor venues.
Familiarity, colder weather and oftentimes playing the second of two divisional matchups may play a role to the model theory. Nonetheless, it’s a model play on the Commanders and Eagles to finish under combined 48.5 points.
PRO System Pick: Commanders vs. Eagles Under 48.5
_InlineAdBlock