The Action Network has developed a historically profitable predictive betting system that reports a return on investment (ROI) of 9% since 2005.
The algorithm has been profitable 56% of the time since the second Bush administration over a lengthy sample size, going 348-269-18 during that span.
The games targeted today are:
- Giants vs. Jaguars (1 p.m. ET)
- Lions vs. Cowboys (1 p.m. ET)
- Falcons vs. Bengals (1 p.m. ET)
- Jets vs. Broncos (4:25 p.m. ET)
The pick is always on the spread and only lights up under very specific parameters. The algorithm also incorporates tracking data proprietary to Action Network.
Statistical significance is ensured by using a massive data set over a long time horizon.
If you had bet $100 on each game that has fit this particular betting algorithm, you’d be up about $5,300.
Compare the 9% ROI to the average annual return of the S&P 500, which has hovered at around 8% for over a century. That index is down about 24% year-to-date. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, for instance, is down about 60% during that same timeframe.
Still, despite similar principles regarding long time horizons and sample sizes, don’t use this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing. Sports betting inherently has more variance game-to-game.
The 56% Profitable Betting Algorithm
This betting system fades teams that have covered a ton early this NFL season.
Teams that frequently cover by a large amount will be highly respected by the market.
The retail bettors also love these sorts of teams.
The lines for these types of teams are generally inflated, and teams are more likely to statistically regress toward the mean rather than continue to cover big.
So, for this model, the team you’d fade needs to have covered the spread this season by a margin of five points or more per game.
It also needs to be Week 5 or beyond in order to be statistically significant.
All those parameters jibe with the aforementioned games and the following spreads:
Place each pick into your FanDuel betslip via the links next to the pick above.
But while this weekend might be the day to cash in, please keep in mind that this system applies to roughly 30 NFL games per season.
Do understand that this is a long-term investment. In order to maximize your 9% return on investment, make sure to follow through whenever this PRO system provides picks for the rest of the season.
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