Week 15 features games on the very far ends of the spectrum of entertainment. The poles, if you will.
Given the season, I’d say the Chargers-Chiefs game is at the North Pole. Perhaps one of the best games we’ll see all season and on a Thursday?!
At the South Pole we have Raiders-Bengals and Redskins-Jaguars. I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.
But these games all have interesting betting stories to tell, as do the games that lie in between.
Here’s what’s gone down since the market opened up on Sunday night.
All data as of Tuesday at noon ET.
Big Line Moves
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
For the second week in a row, it looks like the Bills are going to be a semi-popular pick. Sixty-seven percent of bettors took them last week against the Jets, and shockingly enough, 58% of bettors are back on the wagon.
Not only are the Bills getting the majority of bets, they’re also getting the large majority of money. At almost 80%, we can see why the line has moved from a pick’em to Buffalo -2.5 since opening.
Houston Texans at New York Jets (+6)
The Texans’ lengthy win streak came to an end in Week 14 vs. the Colts, but 70% of bettors believe Houston will start a new one against the Jets.
Despite all of the public support, Houston has fallen off the key number of -7 to -6.
Early sharp bettors hopped on this one, driving that Jets’ line from +7 to +6 within a half hour of opening. Since then, the line has remained quiet, but I could definitely see a little buyback pushing the number up to at least 6.5.
Key Numbers
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
The public is very split on this game, as bets and dollars are within a couple of percentages points of 50/50.
Though there are still some books out there with Kansas City posted at a very juicy -3, most have bumped them up to -3.5.
It’s also worth noting that many of the books at -3.5 have pretty standard juice.
The Chargers recently announced that they don’t expect to have Melvin Gordon or Austin Ekeler ready for the game, which will leave their backfield quite thin.
Cleveland Browns (+3) at Denver Broncos
Nothing in the world tops a little Saturday night NFL action between the Browns and Broncos. NOTHING.
Denver opened between 3- and 4-point, but the large majority of books are down to -3.
Cleveland, which has matched its total number of wins in the Hue Jackson era in five games with Gregg Williams, is getting around 55% of bets and dollars.
Oakland Raiders (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals
Talk about a terrible football game. Make a little video titled “Why the NFL should embrace gambling,” heavily feature this and the Redskins-Jaguars game and send it straight to Roger Goodell’s house.
To my surprise, spread bets are split. I would have imagined Oakland would be the far more popular pick after its upset of the Steelers, but bettors remain undecided as to which team sucks worse.
Our money percentages tell a different story, though, as 75% of the cash is on Oakland. With these big bets backing the Raiders, they’ve moved from +3.5 to +3 since opening.
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Over/Unders
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (53)
This over/under is quite similar to the Saints/Bucs total last week. Here are three things that they have in common
A.) Both are divisional games
2.) Both games have windy conditions
D.) Both opened above 56 and have dropped at least 3 points since opening
I wrote like 300 words about this total yesterday and why I love the under more than my non-existent first born.
Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (36)
Nothing quite like a showdown between Mark Sanchez/Josh Johnson and Cody Kessler. I was very curious as to how the public would bet on this total and so far, the over is getting slightly more than 60% of bets. The cash is almost split 50/50, though, and there’s been no line movement. I really hope some sharp money pounds this down to like 33…
Right now, it is the lowest total since 2012. It would have to drop to 32.5 to be the lowest total of the decade, which is essentially guaranteed not to happen barring a rogue typhoon that hits the area.
