Handicapping a Sunday Night Football spread pick for Cowboys vs. 49ers may look a little different than what most bettors expected prior to the start of the season.
Dallas is just 3-3 thus far with a dreadful -42 point differential heading into Week 8.
San Francisco is under .500, 3-4 to be exact — and will be without key playmakers Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk on Sunday Night Football.
When it comes to Sunday Night Football odds, the 49ers are 4.5-point favorites at the time of writing, with tonight’s over/under sitting at 47.
And according to Action PRO’s betting tools, there is undeniable value on the Sunday Night Football spread.
Sharpest Sunday Night Football Spread Pick
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Fifty-one percent of spread tickets have come in on San Francisco to this point, suggesting very balanced betting.
And while that may be true, the value is solely with Dallas and the points.
According to Action PRO’s Dogs After Blowout System, NFL underdogs of at least three points coming off blowout losses of at least 20 points, like Dallas, have bounced back to go 335-250-13 (57%) against the spread since the 2003 season.
The backbone of this historically profitable strategy is that bettors are overly fixed on recent results and therefore put too much emphasis on performances from the previous week.
While not always easy, buying teams coming off these poor performances offers contrarian value, evidenced by the system’s record above.
Most sportsbooks currently have Dallas +4.5 at -110, though Caesars is five cents better at -105.
PRO Pick: Cowboys +4.5 (-105) — Caesars
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