Saquon Barkley and Justin Jefferson represent the most popular NFL player prop bets for Sunday’s wild card round tilt: Giants vs. Vikings.
Our premier data analytics expert Nick Giffen assessed the value for these most popular picks, which primarily target the anytime TD marketplace.
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Giants vs. Vikings Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- Saquon Barkley to score an anytime touchdown (-120)
- Justin Jefferson to score an anytime touchdown (+115)
- Justin Jefferson to record over 95.5 receiving yards (-115)
*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Saturday afternoon.
Out of these odds, Saquon Barkley to score a touchdown is by far the best line.
Barkley’s fair value odds are -160, or 61.5% implied odds. Meanwhile, the price at PointsBet is -120. That’s a roughly 7% betting edge on Barkley to get into the end zone against the Vikings — like he did when they faced off on Christmas Eve.
A 7% betting edge implies that you’re receiving a 7% discount on that line relative to its fair price.
There isn’t much value on Justin Jefferson’s most popular prop bets — he’s too overvalued by the market and the public.
His fair value line is +122 while PointsBet prices its line at +115. That means you’re paying a 1.5% premium. Make sure to always line shop to see if that market price ever exceeds +122, though.
And Jefferson’s receiving yard prop should be closer to 83 yards, according to Giffen. At over 95.5 receiving yards, you’re losing a substantial amount of value.
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