Sunday’s NFL Week 1 slate concludes with the Los Angeles Rams visiting the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC).
Action PRO’s NFL Projections are showing a particular interest in this game, showing value on both the spread and the over/under.
To start, our betting model projects the Rams vs. Lions spread at Los Angeles +3.5, translating to a 1.8% edge when compared to the consensus line of +4.5.
However, Sunday Night Football’s over/under appears to be the much smarter Rams vs. Lions prediction, which is currently showing as the single largest betting model edge of the entire NFL Week 1 slate.
Here’s the Rams vs. Lions prediction popping with value.
Rams vs. Lions Prediction for Sunday Night Football
*Odds as of Saturday afternoon
The Rams vs. Lions total opened at 51 and with 80% of tickets coming in on the over, the total has been bet up to 52.5 as of the time of writing.
So should bettors tail the line move and bank on a high-scoring game? Or is this number now inflated and the value play is buying back the under?
I’m glad you asked.
Action PRO’s Projections set the Sunday Night Football total at 50, which, when compared to the widely available 52.5, results in a 4.4% under edge — our biggest betting model edge for NFL Week 1.
Please note that some books, like DraftKings, are now at 52 while Caesars, BetMGM and bet365 are all at 52.5 with a -110 vig, so be sure to shop for the best price possible if pouncing on Sunday night’s Rams vs. Lions under.
PRO Pick: Under 52.5 (-110) — BetMGM
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