Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every slate and primetime game throughout the 2021 NFL season. He has a 400-299-4 (57%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
Raiders–Chargers Prop Bet
Jalen Guyton Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
Tonight’s Monday Night Football game should be a shootout and involves two of the top three teams in average pass yards per game. This provides a sneaky “buy low” opportunity on Jalen Guyton.
Guyton should be running a route on approximately 70% of Justin Herbert’s drop backs tonight. Given his very low target rate (8.2%), it’s clear he’s Herbert’s fifth option in the passing game. However, it’s likely that figure regresses toward 10-11% going forward, and I’m projecting him to get right around three targets in tonight’s game.Whenever Guyton sees a target, it’s typically due to the defense overcommitting to Keenan Allen/Mike Williams, making Guyton wide open with room to run after the catch.
According to Next Gen Stats, Guyton led the league with a 5.7 average separation on his five targets in Week 1. Additionally, it resulted in 8.3 expected yards after the catch on his three receptions. I would translate this as follows: When Guyton does see a target, it’s typically because he is wide open and he should be able to convert it into a big gain. I’m projecting Guyton closer 23.5 yards tonight and feel — due to his recent two-game stretch (2/13/0 and 0/0/0) — the market is providing us a little bit of value here. I would bet this up to 21.5.
Pick: Jalen Guyton Over 18.5 Rec Yards (-115) at FanDuel
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