Action PRO’s “blowout” betting angle is live with a pick for the Week 7 London Game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots clash at Wembley Stadium, the second straight London game for Jacksonville. Both teams enter with identical records of 1-5, desperate for a win to turn their fortunes around.
The spotlight will be on Patriots’ rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who threw for 265 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs in his debut as a starter last week. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are favorites, laying 6 points against the spread, with the over/under set at 42 points for the international matchup.
Both teams were whacked a week ago – but there’s a smart play to be made this week.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Odds, Picks, Predictions
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- Jaguars vs. Bears spread: Jaguars -6
- Jaguars vs. Bears over/under: 42
- Jaguars vs. Bears moneyline: Jaguars -265, Patriots +215
Spread
The Jaguars are -6.
Over/Under
The market is expecting about 42 total points according to the over/under market. Both teams flew over the total last game.
Moneyline
The moneyline for Week 7 sets the Jaguars at -265 and the Patriots +215.
Player Prop
One of PRO Projections best calls of the year was nailing Patriots wide receiver Ja’Lynn Polk +800 to score a touchdown in Week 3.
Polk’s odds to score a touchdown in Week 7 are +600. The price implies about a 15.3% chance the rookie WR finds the end zone.
Action PRO models give Polk about a 17% chance to score – a 1.7% edge. As always, PRO Projections recommend a 3.5% grade or better before firing on a projection edge.
Jaguars vs. Patriots Prediction
PRO Systems’ blowout-style betting angle provides the best bet against the spread for Sunday’s October 20 London Game.
Point Spread
One may wonder: Do either the Jags or Patriots — two of the worst teams in football — have what it takes to blow out the other? That’s not exactly the core principle of the betting system.
While it may be tough to pinpoint when a blowout will happen, we have proprietary betting data that shows when to bet teams off blowout losses.
In fact, both the Patriots and Jaguars had their doors blown off last Sunday: New England 41-21 to Houston, and Jacksonville 35-16 to Chicago.
The “Dogs After Blowout” PRO System recommends betting underdogs of +3 or more after a loss by 20+, as these sides have covered the spread 57% of the time!
That makes the New England Patriots a compelling bet against the spread with a rejuvenated offense.
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Total
Heavy winds expected at Wembley have activated the “High Winds” PRO System, which historically yields a 57% win rate and a 10% ROI supporting the under. Reinforcing this position is sharp money heavily supporting the under.
Odds to Win
Despite their underdog status, the Patriots are attracting significant interest, particularly from professional bettors. The “Big Money” indicator shows New England drawing 43% of the total money, despite only accounting for 19% of the overall bets, emphasizing a notable divergence between public betting and expert opinion.
Our PRO Pick
Due to the Patriots attracting what appears to be real support on the moneyline, betting New England against the spread is a smart way to pick Sunday’s London Game.
Underdogs in this spot have covered 58% of the time, and to receiving a full 6 points is key.
Also, according to our researcher Evan Abrams, Lawrence is 11-22 straight up and 16-17 ATS on the road or a neutral site. On the moneyline, he’s lost a $100 bettor $962 away from home in his NFL career. Across the 97 QBs who have made a start since 2021, Lawrence is the least profitable QB on the ML in that spot.
Jaguars vs. Patriots Betting Trends
Here are some more London Game betting trends courtesy of Abrams:
- Dating back to Dec. 1 of last year, Lawrence is 0-7 SU on the road or neutral – the most losses by any quarterback over that span.
Jaguars vs. Patriots Weather
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