Utilizing PRO Projections touchdown tool, I’m taking one of our top edges for Week 15 and stacking them with a +2300 scorer that should be much shorter, for a +15500 touchdown parlay at FanDuel.
The first TD pick goes off in the early, 1 p.m. window Sunday. NFL betting expert and predictive analyst Sean Koerner highlighted this pick as a player that will likely fly under the radar – and based on current odds and edges, we’re indeed getting a bargain.
Secondly, a 23-1 pick in the late-afternoon window already has a touchdown this season and is mispriced according to Action PRO models.
Check out both data-fueled picks for Sunday, and a massive parlay payout for those looking for longshot-type bets backed by projections, at a much smaller wager size.
Parlay Picks for NFL Sunday: +15500 Touchdown Bet for Week 15
Let’s have a blast using expert and predictive analyst Sean Koerner’s touchdown data for NFL Sunday. The first pick made the cut for our top-seven edges in Week 15. The 23-1 longshot, meanwhile, is right above the 3.5% edge our projections recommend taking if tailing only PRO Projections.
We start in the early window when the New Orleans Saints host the Washington Commanders. One player that hasn’t been talked about in weeks is Commanders RB Jeremy McNichols.
The Commanders are off a bye, and the week before, it was third-string RB Chris Rodriguez who played in favor of starter Brian Robinson once Washington ran up the score early on Tennessee in Week 13.
FanDuel odds list both McNichols and Rodriguez at +550, but expert data heavily favors the former to get back on track.
Koerner earlier in the week on the Fantasy Flex podcast specifically called Sunday vs. the Saints a terrific spot for McNichols to see a bunch of work, especially with Austin Ekeler out of the fold.
The Commanders are huge favorites, boast a great running attack, and draw a Saints defense No. 31 in rush DVOA.
McNichols opened +550, has dropped to +500 (that’s where he’ll be tracked in our anytime TD article), but is back to +550 at the time of writing. The odds of +550 imply just a 15.3% chance of a touchdown.
Action PRO Projections reveal a much different forecast, tabbing McNichols to score 23% of the time. It’s a great value based on the odds, spot, and price point, especially for a player who already has four touchdowns on the year!
PRO Pick: Jeremy McNichols TD (+550)
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In the afternoon window, we turn to Colts vs. Broncos, where Colts TE Drew Ogletree (+2300) is a longshot worth considering.
Ogletree already caught a touchdown pass earlier in the year, so he’s fully capable of being in the thick of things when the Colts are in the red zone. The Broncos defense already has to worry about stopping Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, so Ogletree’s live on any type of play-action.
Colts tight ends Mo Alie-Cox (+1100) and Kylen Granson (+1200) will also see snaps, but the value’s undoubtedly with Ogletree at 23-1.
Odds of +2300 imply about a 4% chance, but PRO Projections are much more optimistic, marking Ogletree at 8%.
The Broncos allowed David Njoku to catch nine passes for 52 yards and two scores in their most recent performance. It could be a nice draw for Ogletree off a bye.
PRO TD Projections Pick: Drew Ogletree TD (+2300)
Parlay Price: +15500
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