We close NFL Week 12 with Monday Night Football. It’s a matchup of AFC playoff contenders as the Ravens take on the Chargers tonight at SoFi Stadium.
I have a bet for a Zay Flowers player prop that I see value in tonight, so let’s get to it.
Dr. Nick’s Monday Night Football Picks
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Zay Flowers has cleared this, or come within one yard of clearing, this five times. Four of those were against teams that play primarily man coverage or with a single-high safety. One was against the Bengals, whose defense isn’t good at all. (It’s worth noting that he only cleared this in one of the Ravens’ two matchups this season against the Bengals.)
The Chargers defense is very good, playing two high safeties and a lot of zone coverage. That’s bad news for Flowers tonight.
Flowers’ target share goes down against zone coverage, and the two high safeties also force shorter passes. The Chargers have allowed the lowest share of deep passes (passes of 15 or more yards) this season in the NFL.
I’m expecting the Ravens to lean on the run game against a Chargers defense that ranks 14th in DVOA against the run but seventh against the pass.
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