Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 124-71-6 (63.2%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
In Week 8, there were three Luck Matchups with the unlucky team going 2-1 ATS. That moves the unlucky team in luck-based matchups to a 11-10-1 (52.3%) record ATS on the season.
The three Luck Totals in Week 8 were all Luck Unders that went 1-2 to the under. That moves Luck Unders to 6-6-0 on the season, while Luck Overs remain a perfect 4-0-0. Combined, Luck Totals have a 10-6-0 (62.5%) record this season.
As a reminder here are the criteria for Luck Totals:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 21-16-1 (56.6%) on the season.
This week there are two Luck Matchups and one Luck Total. Let’s take a look.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 9 Games
Texans vs. Jets
Luck Difference: 28
Luck Gap: 39.0%
After suffering one of the all-time catastrophic defeats, the Jets dropped to last place in our Luck Rankings. Now they are set to face the No. 4 team in the Luck Rankings, Houston.
Make no mistake, Houston has been the better team when looking at Expected Scores, even after schedule adjusting them. So to see the Jets at -1.5 or -2 is a bit puzzling, even with home-field advantage.
It seems like the market has more than adjusted here, but that doesn’t mean I won’t back the Luck Rankings or the Jets.
It just means I need to go a layer deeper into all the matchup details before I choose whether to pass or play this game rather than taking it on the first pass and feeling confident in the number.
Verdict: Wait
_InlineAdBlock
Commanders vs. Giants
This one is setting off some mega luck-rankings signals in that both the Luck Gap of 33.6% and the Scoring Luck Gap (a second metric I’ve been tracking that’s added some predictive value) of 31.2% at this time of year point to backing the Giants as the unlucky team.
The Commanders are coming off a Hail Mary victory against the Chicago Bears, while the Giants played the Steelers somewhat evenly, losing by eight in a game our Expected Scores had the Steelers winning by closer to a field goal. So, in addition to season-long luck, there’s also recency luck that could be adding bias into the market.
Washington was -2.5 on the lookahead four days ago, so crossing the key number of three and moving an extra half point beyond that makes this a prime spot to back New York.
The Giants more than covered their offensive team total against a better Steelers defense, and remain relatively intact other than an injury to RB Tyrone Tracy. Whether he plays or not remains to be seen, but regardless, his absence doesn’t really impact the spread much — if any as an isolated non-QB injury.
Given the defensive downgrade from Pittsburgh to Washington, I’m confident this Giants team can move the ball. From there, it’s whether they can find the end zone more. Positive regression should hit at some point, and a big defensive downgrade to their opponents is the perfect spot.
I’ll back New York getting four points here.
Verdict: Bet Giants +4
Jaguars vs. Eagles
Luck Total: -8.8
I immediately bet the under when I ran the Expected Scores for Week 8 and saw this was a Luck Under. Jacksonville has been involved in games that average a total Expected Score of 44, while Philadelphia’s games have been even lower, averaging a total Expected Score of 40 points.
Jacksonville is now missing WR Christian Kirk for the season, and fellow wideout Brian Thomas Jr. is questionable for Week 9 after picking up a chest injury against Green Bay.
Additionally, Jacksonville is fantastic at stopping the run, which Philadelphia is both better at than passing, as well as doing it frequently as the fourth-most run heavy team. I love the under here and grabbed it at 46 on Monday afternoon. That number is still available at the time of writing at Bet365 and Caesars. I’m fine with grabbing it under 45.5 if that’s all you have available to you.
Verdict: Bet Under 46
_InlineAdBlockRestart