Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria 122-70-6 (63%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
In Week 7, there were no Luck Matchups. That keeps the unlucky team in luck-based matchups to a 9-9-1 (50%) record ATS on the season.
The three Luck Totals in Week 7 consisted of two Luck Unders that went 1-1 to the under and a Luck Over that went 1-0 to the over. That moves Luck Unders to 5-4-0 on the season, while Luck Overs a perfect 4-0-0. Combined, Luck Totals have a 9-4-0 (69.2%) record this season.
As a reminder here are the criteria for Luck Totals:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 18-13-1 (57.2%) on the season.
This week there are three Luck Matchups and three Luck Totals. Let’s take a look.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 8 Games
Vikings vs. Rams
Luck Difference: 27
Luck Gap: 38.7%
With a Luck Difference of 27, this game meets the first of the three Luck Matchup criteria.
The Rams are coming off a bit of an unlucky win against the Raiders, with a five-point victory that should have been six points by expected score, while the Vikings sit as the sixth-luckiest team after a 5-1 start.
Los Angeles is 2-4 but actually has a higher offensive Expected Score than defensive Expected Score allowed. That positive differential is vastly different from their minus-40 point differential that people often use to cite Pythagorean wins. Second-order Pythagorean wins are more predictive, though, which is why the Rams rank 31st in scoring luck.
This is also a positive QB matchup for Matthew Stafford as the Vikings play Cover 4 at a 29.5% clip, according to Fantasy Points Data. That’s more than twice the 14% rate Stafford has faced Cover 4 this year. He’s produced the best results when throwing against Cover 4, while the Vikings defense has been at its worst when using Cover 4.
On the flip side, Sam Darnold has had his best production against man coverage, but the Rams play man below league average rates, and nearly 10% less than Darnold has faced this season. Instead, the Rams play Covers 3, 4 and 6 a total of 64% of the time. Darnold’s efficiency is worst against these three coverages.
The biggest question will be how much pressure the Vikings generate against Stafford. Stafford notoriously struggles when his pass blocking struggles, and the Rams offensive line is arguably the worst he’s had in his career while facing a Vikings defense that generates the No. 1 pressure rate in the NFL. However, when he has a clean pocket, the coverage matchup as noted is a huge plus.
Cooper Kupp’s return will help alleviate some of the pressure worries since he’s by far the most targeted on a per-route basis of the Rams’ regular options when Stafford is facing pressure.
Given the market is trying to move off the key number of three, I’d suggest grabbing it now if you want to back the Rams.
Verdict: Bet Rams +3 (-115)
Packers vs. Jaguars
Luck Difference: 27
Luck Gap: 47.7%
The Packers coming off the fourth-most lucky win of Week 7, which elevated them to No. 1 in our Luck Rankings. Meanwhile, the Jaguars were unlucky winners, beating the Patriots by 16 in a game that our Expected Score had the Jags winning by 18 in a lower-scoring environment, which widens the win probability gap even more.
When both the season-long and weekly luck factors align, I particularly like to back the unlucky team because of overall and recency bias.
The Packers have made a living off of explosive plays this year and while the Jaguars have been terrible at preventing explosive plays, any sort of regression would bode well for the Jaguars chances. It’s more likely than not that one or both of these teams trend toward the middle rather than stay at the extremes.
Like the Thursday Night Football game, we have another case of the unlucky team’s QB having a positive coverage matchup while the lucky team’s QB has a negative coverage matchup.
I’ll roll with the Jaguars here.
Verdict: Bet Jacksonville +4.5
Titans vs. Lions
Luck Difference: 26
Luck Gap: 40.9%
I can’t blame you if you want to fade the Titans here, I really can’t. They’ve been abysmal and face the powerhouse Lions in Week 8. That said, the Lions don’t have the best matchup here.
Detroit is a run-first team with a PROE of -6.3% that ranks them as the sixth-most run-heavy team relative to game script. What do the Titans do well? Stop the run, ranking sixth in defensive run DVOA. That means Jared Goff will likely face more long-yardage situations than he’s used to, and that could be an issue against a Titans team that loves dropping men into coverage.
While there’s no official word yet from the NFL on the status of WR Jameson Williams, who is reportedly facing a two-game suspension and the Lions are preparing to be without. This would be the ideal time to serve the suspension, as well. That would lessen the passing game advantage Detroit has against this Tennessee defense.
That said, Tennessee is also facing a personnel depletion. It’s reported that trades are imminent for WR DeAndre Hopkins and middle linebacker Ernest Jones. The Titans are in full tank mode, but the line has moved toward Tennessee all week.
I want to buy the Titans here but don’t think I can just yet until we see how all these “reported” trades and suspensions actually come to fruition.
Verdict: Wait
Ravens vs. Browns
Luck Total: -7.7
Baltimore and Cleveland square off in the game with the largest Luck Under signal of the week. The -7.7 Luck Total places this firmly in Luck Under territory and we’re at the point where we can consider backing the under early. The market has risen from 42.5 to 44.5, met resistance at 44.5, and has since once again risen to 44.5 where it sits as I write this.
That means it seems likely we’re capped out on this total, which is above the key number of 44.
The Ravens are favored by multiple scores, and they do tend to slow the pace down when leading which helps the under, although they have allowed multiple teams to score a handful of points late in blowouts, including on Monday against Tampa Bay.
That said, they’ve also held the Bills to 10 total points in a blowout, so the late scoring is probably just noise.
Given both Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon make this total lower than the current line as of this point in the week, and I’m at 43.5. So, I’m happy to grab 44.5 and get the key number of 44.
Verdict: Bet Under 44.5
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Eagles vs. Bengals
Luck Total: -5.6
I’ll just be short, sweet and to the point here: I think these teams offenses have enough public perception as potentially good and explosive that I see this total rising. Last week it peaked at 49, this week it dropped to 46.5. Now, it’s back on the rise to where sits at 48, as of Wednesday afternoon.
I’ll wait for it to rise more with 75% of the tickets and money on the over.
Verdict: Wait
Bills vs. Seahawks
Luck Total: -5.1
The Bills-Titans Luck Under last week got crushed by an absolute meltdown by the Titans after going for it on fourth down in their own territory when they clearly should have punted. They failed to convert, the Bills scored a quick TD off a short field, which opened the floodgates.
Meanwhile, Seattle was quite lucky to produce 34 points in a game our Expected Score had it at 22.3 points.
Both quarterbacks have negative coverage matchups and when the passing games struggle, scoring tends to struggle.
This total has dropped all week thanks to sharp action, so it’s a bit annoying to get the worst of the number. That now means there’s merit to waiting this out, especially with 47 such a key number. Most of the tickets and money coming in on the over, and weather forecasts could shift leading to a window of opportunity to get a better number.
So, while I want to take the under now, it seems more prudent to wait.
Verdict: Wait
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