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NFL Week 5 Player Props: PrizePicks Plays for Jamaal Williams, Rashaad Penny, Kenny Pickett

We’re in the thick of the NFL season. Week 5 means we’ve passed the quarter-way mark, which means we have more information to hit games from different angles.

I’d check out PrizePicks, which allows you to pair up and parlay NFL player props and wager real money in 30 states.

I’ve picked out three PrizePicks numbers that provide value according to our Action Labs Projections. Check them out below.

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Jamaal Williams
Over/Under 16.5 Rush Attempts

The big news in this Lions–Patriots game – outside of another edition of Zappe Hour – is that D’Andre Swift is again unavailable.

That’s a big loss for a Lions offense that has been the best in the league with Swift in the fold. He’s a dual-threat back who’s racked up 308 scrimmage yards in three games.

However, Jamaal Williams isn’t too bad himself.

He’s been used heavily in the red zone (six touchdowns) and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry (YPC). Against Minnesota, Detroit ran him 20 times even with Swift playing half the snaps.

Williams then picked up 19 attempts last week against Seattle with Swift sidelined. That makes it three straight contests Swift has cashed this line without Swift if you include the 19 and 17 carries he had in December games last season.

The New England defense ranks 31st in Rush Defense DVOA this season. Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon cashed their rush attempt totals last week. Expect plenty more attempts — for both teams — with Zappe under center again.

Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Williams for over 18 carries on. This is a safe PrizePicks bet.

Pick: Over 16.5 rush attempts

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Rashaad Penny
Over/Under 14.5 Rush Attempts

This is an overreaction.

I’m sure the public is thrilled to back Rashaad Penny after he finally broke out against (checks notes) Detroit’s defense. The Lions have the best offense and the worst defense in the league. Notably, they rank last in Rush Defense DVOA this season.

The Lions have allowed the ninth-most rushing attempts and the third-most rushing yards in the league so far. Suffice it to say, it’s pretty easy to pick up attempts and yards against Detroit.

That’s an inability to tackle.

Penny should come back to earth this week. The Saints have an average rush defense, but Penny fell under this attempts line from Weeks 1-3 against other league-average rush defenses.

Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Penny for just 13 rush attempts this Sunday. That gives us enough value to play this one.

Pick: Under 14.5 rush attempts

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Kenny Pickett
Over/Under 20.5 Rushing Yards

Mike Tomlin finally got fed up with the Mitch Trubisky experience and threw Kenny Pickett to the wolves last week.

Pickett actually played alright and the Steelers might be a live dog this upcoming week — especially if the rook keeps making passes like this:

However, I don’t think Pickett is quite ready yet. He’s also going to be significantly challenged against Buffalo’s pass defense, which leads the league in DVOA. Even Lamar Jackson was forced out of the pocket enough to pick up 73 rushing yards.

Pickett had plenty of time to pass against the Jets because the Jets are bad. But he still picked up 15 rushing yards while playing only 31 of a possible 64 snaps. He’s known for his arm, but he’s still incredibly athletic.

Check out this play from his senior year at Pitt:

We’re thinking that Pickett should face plenty of pressure against the Bills and will be forced out of the pocket early and often. He’ll fall back on his legs and easily cash this PrizePick prop for us.

Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Pickett for 26 rushing yards, while Stokastic’s Player Props Tool projects Pickett for 27.5.

Pick: Over 20.5 rushing yards

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Tanner McGrath

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