One major advantage of using data to make NFL bets is that it quickly pinpoints which games are offering the the most value while also taking emotion out of the handicapping process.
This not only helps savvy bettors get on the games with the biggest edges, but it also keeps them from making poor wagering decisions.
For example, if the data says seven games are worth bets, then so be it.
On the other hand, if the numbers truly like only a handful of bets, then that’s fine too.
There’s no preset number of bets that people should try to make for any given Sunday NFL slate.
Take what the data gives you, and that’s exactly what we’re doing for Week 5.
Here are the three games that value-minded bettors should consider across Sunday’s entire slate of NFL matchups.
NFL Week 5 Sharp Betting Predictions
*Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.
Eagles vs. Panthers Betting Prediction
1 p.m. ET | FOX
According to our Fade Covering Teams PRO Betting System, teams that are overperforming against the spread are ripe for fading in the NFL.
This strategy has resulted in a 56% win rate since the start of the 2005 season, and the Eagles, by way of fading the Panthers, are a match on Sunday.
In fact, Philly has landed 60% of the money wagered on this spread on just 25% of the tickets, so it appears that bigger bettors may already be quietly leveraging this historically-profitable strategy.
PRO Report Pick: Eagles +3
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Giants vs. Cowboys Betting Prediction
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
The Cowboys have been very generous to bettors this season, sitting at 4-0 against the spread (ATS) and covering by an average of 8.5 points.
However, according to our Fade Covering Teams PRO Betting System, Dallas is overvalued following its first four games.
Teams that fit this system’s criteria are just 44% ATS since 2005, signaling that the Giants are in a valuable position on Sunday.
Additionally, The Action Network’s NFL PRO Projections make this spread New York +5.6, resulting in a 2.4% edge when compared to the consensus line of the Giants getting a full touchdown in this matchup.
Seventy-four percent of Giants vs. Cowboys bettors have gotten down on Dallas thus far, but for the reasons above, New York is popping with contrarian value in Sunday’s NFC East rivalry game.
PRO Report Pick: Giants +7
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49ers vs. Cardinals Betting Prediction
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
The Cardinals are covering the spread by an incredible 12.25 points per game so far this season, which ironically suggests that they’re a team to fade.
Because they’ve been so good for bettors thus far, it’s reasonable to assume that they’re overvalued in the market and our Fade Covering Teams NFL PRO Betting System agrees.
Betting against teams that fit this system’s criteria, like Arizona, has provided a 325-254-17 (56%) against-the-spread win rate dating back to 2005.
It’s certainly an ugly play, but history indicates that it’s one offering value, so much so that two of The Action Network’s top NFL bettors have also taken a position with San Francisco and the points as well.
And finally, be sure to visit our NFL Live Odds page to pinpoint one of the handful of shops at San Fran +5.5.
PRO Report Pick: 49ers +4.5
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