The unpredictable start to the 2024 NFL season continued last week, with teams like the Broncos, Giants, Panthers and Commanders all pulling off significant upsets in Week 3.
Looking ahead to the Week 4 slate, it’s fascinating how respected bettors are already approaching two underdogs in Week 4, specifically Broncos vs. Jets and Eagles vs. Buccaneers.
Key numbers are also a big part of the story here, which is likely motivating the wise guys to get down early and hard on these NFL Week 4 picks.
Let me explain.
NFL Week 4 Picks
*Odds as of Tuesday afternoon
Broncos vs. Jets Pick
Sunday, Sept. 29 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
As a 6-point underdog, Denver pummeled Tampa Bay last week and is rewarded with a game against Aaron Rodgers and Company.
The Broncos are in similar territory once again at +7 against the Jets, but what’s surprising is how the smart money is already influencing this spread.
According to Action Network’s NFL public betting percentages, spread betting is relatively balanced, as Denver has landed 53% of tickets thus far. However, sharps were quick to steam Denver at +7.5, pushing the line onto the key number of +7 in early week betting.
PRO Pick: Broncos +7 (-105)
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Pick
Sunday, Sept. 29 | 1 p.m. ET | FOX
The most important number in all of NFL betting is in play for Eagles vs. Buccaneers.
Similar to the game above, pro bettors pounced on early value — which, in this instance, was Tampa Bay +3.
Because +3 is so significant, and with 74% of money on the Bucs, it’s not a terrible strategy to wait and see if this line ticks back up to a full field goal, though there is no denying that Tampa Bay +3 is the clear sharp side of the game to this point.
PRO Pick: Buccaneers +2.5 (-105)
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