Every Sunday night, I’ll reveal the bets I’d recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly after they’re posted, so it’ll be important to get the bets in as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL Weeks 2 picks I have already made before recording the recap episode of “The Action Network Podcast” on Sunday night.
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NFL Week 2 Picks
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Under 51 (-110)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” awayname=”Buffalo Bills” awayslug=”buffalo-bills” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png” homename=”Miami Dolphins” homeslug=”miami-dolphins” date=”Thursday, Sept. 12″ time=”8:15 p.m. ET” network=”Prime Video” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
The Dolphins never got into an offensive rhythm in Week 1 against the Jaguars. Part of that is because the run game never got going. I am a bit worried about Miami’s offensive line, though.
The Bills appear to be leaning into a power-running attack under offensive coordinator Joe Brady like they did last season. Buffalo was down 17-3 near halftime, and Josh Allen had just three pass attempts in the game at that point. It was an emphasis to establish the run.
There are a bunch of trends that back this pick, as well.
- Thursday Night Football games in September and October with totals of 49.5 or higher are 15-4-1 (79%) to the under, and those cover by 5.3 points per game.
- Dolphins games with Mike McDaniel as head coach with a total of 51 or higher are 4-2 to the under.
- Bills road games with Sean McDermott as head coach are 33-21-2 (61%) to the under.
- Something simple: Primetime unders over the last four seasons have hit at a 59% clip.
Miami will be playing on a short week after early-season conditioning and playing in 90-degree heat on Sunday. Also the weather looks like there’s more than a 60% chance of rain and winds of 10 or more mph.
This game is already 50.5 at some books. That’s a key number since bad weather could drop this total a bunch.
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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Seahawks -3 (-110)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sea.png” awayname=”Seattle Seahawks” awayslug=”seattle-seahawks” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ne.png” homename=”New England Patriots” homeslug=”new-england-patriots” date=”Sunday, Sept. 15″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
I had this as my lookahead for Week 2, and I’m doubling down on it. This had crept to 3.5 or 4 at some books, but it returned to the key number after Sunday.
The Patriots defense was solid in Week 1 against the Bengals, but that performance was more about Cincinnati than New England.
On the other side, Seattle had a nightmare first half and still won with relative ease against the Broncos. That could have been a more convincing win for the Seahawks.
Returns on Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks defense are positive. Seattle forced three turnovers and allowed just 231 yards on 3.3 yards per play, as well as just 13 Broncos first downs. The Patriots awful offensive line will be under pressure against Macdonald’s pass rush.
You get a second chance at this number, so grab it.
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