Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 128-78-6 (61.8%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
In Week 16, there were no sides, which leaves them at 15-17-1 (47%) ATS on the season.
There were two Luck Totals in Week 16 — one Luck Under that stayed under its closing total, moving Luck Unders to 13-10-0 on the season, and one Luck Over that went over. That moves Luck Overs to 6-0-0 this year. As a whole, Luck Totals are 19-10-0 (65.5%) this season.
As a reminder, here are the criteria for Luck Totals:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 34-27-1 (55.6%) on the season.
For NFL Week 17, there are two sides, and four luck-based totals. Let’s take a look.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 17 Games
Chiefs vs. Steelers
Luck Total: +5.4
I bet over 43 earlier in the week, and I make this game a shade over 44 when using schedule-adjusted expected scores and adjusting for likely injuries, including to key defensive players Joey Porter Jr. and Chris Jones.
Verdict: Bet over 43.5. Bet to 44.
Ravens vs. Texans
Luck Total: -7.1
I bet the under on this game Sunday evening when the total was 47.5. Right now, the total sits at 46.5 everywhere.
Given that 47 is a key number, I’d wait to see if this pushes back up to that 47 number by kickoff, then take the under.
Verdict: Wait for 47 then bet the under.
Patriots vs. Chargers
Luck Difference: 24
Luck Gap: 30.5%
This game was +5.5 and even +6 at some sportsbooks earlier this week, but sharp action has pushed this to Patriots +4 or +4.5.
I’ll wait for this to float back out before deciding if I want to back the Patriots.
Verdict: Wait
Jets vs. Bills
Luck Total: -5.4
I took under 47.5 on Sunday. ESPN BET is still hanging under 47.5 so go grab that while you can.
Verdict: Bet under 47.5. Good to 47.
Colts vs. Giants
Luck Difference: 24
Luck Gap: 38.1%
I took the Giants +8 on Sunday, and that’s where it currently resides.
It did reach a consensus +7.5 before getting pushed back to +8, so I think, at best, there may be a +8.5 by kickoff. I’m fine if you want to wait for the +8.5 or just take the +8 now.
Verdict: Bet Giants +8. Good to +8.
Titans vs. Jaguars
Luck Total: -5.6
I have been watching the board on this one and saw a 41 pop up Monday night. However, when I woke up on Tuesday those were long gone and the total is back to 39.5 or 40 everywhere.
I’ll wait to see if this goes back up toward 41 since Mason Rudolph at QB does make this a higher expected total than if it was Will Levis under center.
Verdict: Wait.