Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 128-76-6 (62.4%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
In Week 14, the Cleveland Browns failed to cover in the lone Luck Matchup of the week that met our thresholds. That moves unlucky team teams in those games to 15-15-1 (50%) ATS on the season.
There were two Luck Totals in Week 14. Both Luck Unders stayed under, bringing Luck Unders to 12-9-0 for the season, while Luck Overs remain undefeated at 4-0-0. Overall, Luck Totals stand at 16-9-0 (64%) this season.
As a reminder, here are the criteria for Luck Totals:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 31-24-1 (56.3%) on the season.
For NFL Week 15, there is one Luck Matchup and two Luck Unders. Let’s take a look.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 15 Games
Chiefs vs. Browns
Luck Gap: 41.0%
Luck Difference: 28
After failing to cover against the Steelers, the Browns now are the unlucky team against the No. 1 team in the Luck Rankings, Kansas City.
Currently, the Chiefs are getting the bigger money after the line moved from 6.5 to 4. It seems likely with bigger money now coming in on Kansas City there could be some movement back toward a bigger number, so I don’t see any reason to bet on the Browns right now.
Verdict: Wait
Ravens vs. Giants
Luck Gap: 30.8%
Luck Difference: 20
In an opposite trend from the Chiefs-Browns game, the line has lengthened throughout the week for the unlucky team, in this case the Giants.
I doubt we see a 17, but I’m willing to wait to see where the juice moves on the few 16.5s before I bite on the Giants.
Given that the Ravens have allowed few backdoor covers this year, I’m certainly interested in taking the unlucky Giants at some point.
Verdict: Monitor movement closely. If juice moves toward 16 bet immediately otherwise wait for 17.
Patriots vs. Cardinals
Luck Total: +6.4
I already took the over at 45.5 here because I make this number 47 — just like Chris Raybon.
Luck Overs this time of year have an incredible record, so I definitely want to invest early since totals often get bet up.
Verdict: Bet up to 46.5.
Bengals vs. Titans
Luck Total: -8.1
Wind, and possible rain, are in the forecast, which has helped drive this number down from 49 to 47 or even 46.5 in some spots. Schedule-adjusted Expected Scores have this at 45.5, so there’s still value despite the number dropping.
These teams both have some key metrics going against them, most notably negative QB coverage matchups for both QBs.
If you’re going to take the under, you want the key number of 47, so I’d advise you to bet now given 88% of the money is on the under.
I’m waiting only because I’m on vacation and haven’t had a chance to do a deeper-level analysis. Also, I’m still rooting for the small chance that the Bengals give up the most points on the season to cash my 60-1 season-long ticket, so I haven’t decided yet if this is the spot I want to hedge that bet by taking the under (or the Titans team total under).
Verdict: Bet under 47 if you believe in the Luck Unders, the weather and the negative QB coverage matchups even if I’m not betting it myself.
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