Our NFL Week 13 Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 127-74-6 (62.8%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
In Week 12, the unlucky teams meeting our critera went 1-1 ATS. That moves the unlucky team in luck-based matchups to a 14-13-1 (51.8%) record ATS on the season.
The lone Luck Total in Week 12 was a Luck Under that went over its total. That moves Luck Unders to 8-9-0 on the season, while Luck Overs remain a perfect 4-0-0. Combined, Luck Totals have a 12-9-0 (57.1%) record this season.
As a reminder here are the criteria for Luck Totals:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 26-22-1 (54.1%) on the season.
For NFL Week 13, there are two Luck Matchups and two Luck Unders. Let’s take a look.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 13 Discussion
We’ve hit an inflection point in the season where three things happen in the Luck Rankings.
First, the Luck Gap% threshold reduces from 50% to 30%, which should make sense. As time goes along, luck tends to regress to the mean, so it’s harder to have big luck-gap games.
At the same time, with more data, we have more evidence teams have been lucky so we’d also expect the narrowing threshold to still provide value as evidence piles up.
Second, and maybe most importantly, Luck Matchups suddenly hit some major trends with this change.
Unlucky teams in games meeting the 30% threshold criteria from Week 13 to the second-to-last week of the regular season (we always ignore the last week due to motivation reasons) are an astonishing 25-4-1 (85%) ATS since 2018. That includes:
- 11-0-1 ATS since 2022, which is the season I first started using my Luck Rankings formula
- 15-1-0 ATS since 2018 if the unlucky team is also on the road
I should note that since 2018, Week 13 has always come after Thanksgiving except in 2019. So this is possibly a post-Thanksgiving trend as Luck Matchups went 1-1 in 2019 during that Thanksgiving Week 13.
Finally, the third major point of note is that the threshold for a Luck Over reduces from a Luck Total of +10 to +5 (it was actually reduced last week, but nothing met the threshold). Luck Overs are much more rare since games tend to get bet up, so it requires more stringent thresholds than Luck Unders.
But as a result, Luck Overs after Week 11 are 29-18-1 (61.5%) to the over since 2018. Add that to the early season Luck Over criteria (Luck Total above +10 after Week 3), which is 17-5-0 (77.3%) to the over, and we have Luck Overs as a whole are 46-23-1 (66.4%) to the over.
This is an exciting time of year for the Luck Rankings, and hopefully this season ends on another strong note!
NFL Luck Rankings Week 13 Games
Raiders vs. Chiefs
Luck Difference: 29
Luck Gap: 36.0%
The game with the largest Luck Gap is an AFC West clash between the Raiders as the unlucky team and Chiefs, who top the Luck Rankings after a close win against Carolina.
The news on the Raiders side is their QB situation. Starting QB Gardner Minshew — who lost his job to Aidan O’Connell before O’Connell went down with an injury — got injured himself. That meant Desmond Ridder filled in at QB for the end of Las Vegas’ Week 12 game against Denver.
Well, as it turns out, O’Connell’s broken thumb has healed enough to where he’s likely to be the man under center for Las Vegas.
That should help the Raiders as O’Connell is more capable of pushing the ball down field. I’ve seen enough news out there to feel good that O’Connell will be the starter, so I’m firing on the Raiders.
Verdict: Bet Raiders +13
Steelers vs. Bengals
Luck Difference: 25
Luck Gap: 29.2%
This game doesn’t meet the 30% Luck Gap threshold, but the 24+ Luck Difference threshold applies throughout the year. Thus, this is a Luck Matchup with the Bengals as the unlucky team, sitting 29th in the Luck Rankings compared to fourth for the Steelers.
In the seven games in which the difference was 24 or more but not meeting the 30% criteria after Week 12, the unlucky team is 6-1-0 ATS, with all seven games occurring after the introduction of the Luck Rankings at the start of the 2022 season.
This is an interesting game, and it all depends on your perception of the Steelers.
Since their Week 9 bye, the Steelers have produced three straight sub-40% in-possession success rate games against three defenses that rank 15th or worse in defensive DVOA.
Teams that are between 35% and 40% in that metric cover at just a 38% clip over a 733-game sample size over the last seven years, including just a 44% rate if they are between a 2.5- to 3.5-point underdog, where this game likely ends up.
To me, this is fairly priced at a field goal, so I’ll likely pass unless this moves off the 3 and I can get Cincy at -2.5 that isn’t juiced beyond -110.
Even then, it may come down to injury reports, as well as diving deeper into specific matchups on whether I’d play that number.
Verdict: Wait/Pass
Texans vs. Jaguars
Texans at Jaguars
Luck Total: -7.1
The Texans are coming off a 32-27 loss to the Titans that produced much more scoring than expected.
Part of that had to do with another Will Levis pick-six, but also the Texans’ opening kickoff return of 80 yards to start the game, giving them a short field that resulted in a touchdown on the opening play from scrimmage.
However, we have to wait for news on Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, as that could push the total up.
I’d hate to take an under on a lower number if Lawrence, who returned to practice, is able to suit up.
Verdict: Wait
Eagles vs. Ravens
Eagles at Ravens
Luck Total: -6.4
I see no reason to rush a pick here given 61% of the money and bets are on the over, and that likely should continue with two marquee teams in a primetime game.
In addition to the Luck Under, my weighted early down success rate numbers love the under here, too, with both teams expected to be in the 3-4% less successful range on early downs than they have been of late.
Then it comes down to how these teams would fare on later downs, and the numbers are less encouraging for the under.
Both QBs have a positive coverage matchup, with Jalen Hurts garnering the second best of all 32 starting QBs this week.
This may be a classic spot for the first-half under since there will be less urgency to throw in the first half, but I’ll evaluate that later in the week since there’s no rush with the total possibly moving higher.
Verdict: Wait
_InlineAdBlock