Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 126-72-6 (63.2%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
In Week 10, the New Orleans Saints covered as the unlucky team in the only Luck Matchup of the week. That moves the unlucky team in luck-based matchups to a 13-11-1 (52.1%) record ATS on the season.
The three Luck Totals in Week 10 were all Luck Unders that went 2-1 to the under. That moves Luck Unders to 8-8-0 on the season, while Luck Overs remain a perfect 4-0-0. Combined, Luck Totals have a 12-8-0 (60%) record this season.
As a reminder here are the criteria for Luck Totals:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 25-19-1 (56.7%) on the season.
This week, there’s only a single Luck Matchup and no Luck Totals. Let’s take a look.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 11 Games
Jaguars vs. Lions
Luck Difference: 27
Luck Gap: 36.6%
Heading into Sunday’s games, the lookahead sat at an 11.5-point spread, but now with Mac Jones announced as the starter with Trevor Lawrence officially out, this line rests anywhere from 13 to 14 points depending on the shop.
Both Jacksonville and Detroit got lucky in Week 10 by our Expected Score metric, which powers the Luck Rankings, and maybe the lookahead was pricing in a potential Lawrence return, but at this point I don’t see a need to jump on this line early with the market continuing to move toward Detroit.
It probably doesn’t sound too fun to back Jacksonville here, but people have been saying that all year. The Jags started out 1-4-1 ATS, but have since gone 4-0-0 ATS. They’ve been covering of late, including covers against Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Green Bay.
I want to get on Jacksonville, but not yet. Instead, we can wait closer to kickoff. It seems like the public is likely to push this number even more toward the Lions’ direction with Detroit taking the bulk of the tickets and money so far.
Verdict: Wait.
_InlineAdBlockRestart