We’re covering the best touchdown picks to score anytime Sunday of Week 12 from Action PRO models.
A whopping nine selections made the cut using our recommended grading system. Six are +700 or more.
Picks from NFL expert insights include a +900 backup running back in the early window, a +1500 quarterback nobody’s thinking of, a +1600 longshot for Sunday Night Football, and more.
Last Sunday’s NFL touchdown picks using PRO data racked up 9+ units.
Let’s check out more players the PRO touchdown tool is high on to score a touchdown for NFL Week 12.
NFL Touchdown Picks, Odds, Expert TD Predictions Sunday Week 12
The premise of these TD picks from the PRO touchdown tool is simple.
Top-tier Action NFL betting experts like Nick Giffen, Sean Koerner, and Chris Raybon plug in their player performance predictions. We then stack up PRO odds against prices available at different sportsbooks – and as we learned, we can find tons of value when we line shop.
Last week we plucked eight data-driven picks from our cutting-edge touchdown predictor, all at +300 odds or better – three hit, including a +600 gem which was completely mispriced at one sportsbook in particular.
Here’s a recap of last week’s touchdown picks our NFL betting models we’re high on, along with the best bets for Sunday Week 12.
- Cam Akers (+600) Win
- Juwan Johnson (+450) Win
- Will Dissly (+425) Win
- Braelon Allen (+300) Loss
- Devaughn Vele (+425) Loss
- Jaylen Wright (+650) Loss
- Kalif Raymond (+850) Loss
- Tanner Hudson (+900) Loss
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 1 for Sunday
Here we go!
In the early window for Lions vs. Colts, proprietary data loves Colts running back Jonathan Taylor to get in the end zone.
The best price grab around the market on a Taylor anytime TD is +105 (FanDuel). The workhorse back should not be plus-money to score vs. the Lions on Sunday per our models, as NFL experts project Taylor to score 78% of the time!
Taylor should be (heavy) chalk using our pricing.
PRO Projections Pick: Jonathan Taylor Touchdown (+105)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 2 for Sunday
Another running back in the 1 p.m. window projections flagged is Commanders RB Jeremy McNichols, with longshot odds of +900 at FanDuel.
That price implies the market expects the backup to score 10% of the time Sunday. PRO models show optimism, lending a 6% edge with a 16% chance of an anytime touchdown prediction for McNichols vs. the Cowboys.
PRO Projections Pick: Jeremy McNichols Touchdown (+900)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 3 for Sunday
Let’s stick with the Cowboys vs. Commanders game. Washington WR Olamide Zaccheaus is another longshot look. FanDuel lists the receiver at +800 (11.1% market probability) to score Sunday in Week 12.
Our prediction for Zaccheaus is 16%, offering a near-5% edge over the best market price.
PRO Projections Pick: Olamide Zaccheaus Touchdown (+800)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 4 for Sunday
Panthers TE Ja’Tavion Sanders may have officially arrived for the Panthers.
The rookie out of Texas was a solid athlete in college and he’s already acclimating well to the pros with the amount of action he’s getting. Sanders was a projection pick a couple weeks ago, and scored the last game in Germany. His rapport with rookie Bryce Young is gaining traction.
The implied probability of +700 equates to the market giving Sanders about a 12.5% chance to score against the Chiefs. PRO Projections, meanwhile, predict Sanders to score 18% of the time – a 5.5% edge.
And he’s not the only rookie on Carolina advanced NFL models like.
PRO Projections Pick: Ja’Tavion Sanders Touchdown (+700)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 5 for Sunday
Carolina is expected to be throwing, throwing and throwing. Another first-year player who’s burst onto the scene for the Panthers is WR Xavier Legette.
His +480 price at FanDuel suggests a TD about 17% of the time – much lower than Action PRO’s number of 23%.
PRO Projections Pick: Xavier Legette Touchdown (+480)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 6 for Sunday
Here’s a nice buy-low opportunity on Bears WR D.J. Moore.
He’s priced at +340 on FanDuel. The Action TD tool gives Moore a 31% chance to score, which means his fair price should be more like +222.
PRO Projections Pick: DJ Moore Touchdown (+340)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 7 for Sunday
How about this? QB Jared Goff is a bet!
He’s +1500 to score at BetMGM. NFL predictive models from our experts slot Goff’s fair touchdown line closer to +809!
PRO Projections Pick: Jared Goff Touchdown (+1500)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 8 for Sunday
Moving onto the afternoon window, keep an eye on Raiders WR Tre Tucker as his price moves north of +400. The second-year receiver is a Dr. Nick special this week vs. the Broncos.
Nick Giffen, Action’s elite predictive analyst, previewed Tucker’s outlook against Denver in Week 12. You can catch his full TD picks preview here. In particular, here’s Tucker’s forecast to score Sunday from Dr. Nick:
Tre Tucker hasn’t see the same share of deep balls this year as he did last year, but this might be the spot for an uptick.
Last season, Tucker shredded both man coverage and single-high safety looks. While he hasn’t quite had as much success this year, the lower catch rate on these looks certainly hasn’t helped.
With Jakobi Meyers potentially shadowed by Pat Surtain, though, Tucker is poised to take advantage of the Broncos’ seventh-highest rate of single-high safety looks, as well as their sixth-highest rate of man coverage.
Tucker is being overlooked in the touchdown market, priced at +430 (BetMGM). PRO Projections tab Tucker for an anytime TD 27% of situations, producing more of a fair price around +270.
PRO Projections Pick: Tre Tucker Touchdown (+450)
NFL Touchdown Prediction No. 9 for Sunday
The touchdown tool’s top pick for Sunday Night Football is also the biggest payout: Eagles WR Ainias Smith.
DeVonta Smith is out for Philadelphia, so the best place to look in the touchdown market is the rookie out of Texas A&M.
Ainias Smith is +1600 at FanDuel to score, implying just a 5.9% chance. Action PRO models give the shifty receiver more like a 10% forecast to score, which puts his fair odds closer to +900.
PRO Projections Pick: Ainias Smith Touchdown (+1600)
_InlineAdBlock