As we dive into a full Sunday of the NFL season, PRO Projections biggest touchdown edge of the year takes center stage in Week 4.
With six touchdown picks featuring 4% edges or better, there’s plenty of value to be had overall.
This week’s slate provides a wide range of opportunities, from undervalued running backs to +900 long shots that nobody’s considering.
Using proprietary data and PRO Projections from betting expert Sean Koerner and the Action Analytics Team, we have identified the best touchdown picks Sunday has to offer.
NFL Touchdown Picks, Odds: Expert Anytime TD Predictions Sunday Week 4
PRO Projections utilize advanced analytics to compare player prop numbers and odds, grading them from A to C based on their strength. Edges of 3.5% or better are recommended.
Here are all six anytime TD picks Sunday of NFL Week 4 that are 3.5% edges or better at the time of writing.
We begin with the crown jewel.
Best Touchdown Pick for Browns vs. Raiders
The top betting edge of the year belongs to Raiders RB Zamir White, who faces the Cleveland Browns.
Despite a very slow start to the season, we’re not giving up on White. His odds of scoring a touchdown are +280 at FanDuel, which implies a 26% chance of hitting paydirt.
However, according to PRO Projections, he has a 0.41 probability of scoring, giving us a 14.3% edge. This is the biggest edge I’ve single-handedly tracked this season, making him one of our top NFL touchdown predictions for Sunday.
PRO Props Pick: Zamir White to Score a TD (+280)
Best Touchdown Pick for Commanders vs. Cardinals
Another strong pick on our list is Cardinals WR Greg Dortch, who takes on the Washington Commanders.
Dortch’s odds of scoring a touchdown stand at +290 at FanDuel, which implies a 25.5% chance.
PRO Projections, however, see him with a 31% chance to score, providing a hefty 5.7% edge.
Our expert Sean Koerner also took Dortch over 3.5 catches in his best bets for NFL Week 4.
This makes him a smart option for your anytime TD picks.
PRO Props Pick: Greg Dortch to Score a TD (+290)
Best Touchdown Props for Patriots vs. 49ers
49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings is another name to watch this week.
Jennings lit up the scoreboard last week, scoring three times, and now faces the New England Patriots.
His odds are +300 at Caesars, implying a 25% chance. Our PRO Projections give him a 30% chance to score, yielding a 5% edge.
PRO Props Pick: Jauan Jennings to Score a TD (+300)
Best Touchdown Props for Rams vs. Bears
Bears RB D’Andre Swift also finds himself in a favorable position, playing at home against the Rams.
His odds are set at +240 on FanDuel, which translates to a 29.4% chance.
PRO Projections bump this up to 34%, providing a solid 4.6% edge. Swift is thus an enticing candidate for NFL touchdown predictions this weekend against a spotty L.A. defense.
PRO Props Pick: D’Andre Swift to Score a TD (+240)
Best Touchdown Props for Jaguars vs. Texans
If you’re looking for higher odds, Jaguars WR Gabe Davis faces the Texans with +410 odds at Caesars, implying just a 19.6% chance.
However, PRO Projections give him a 24% chance to find the end zone, providing a 4.4% edge.
Davis could offer a lucrative return for your anytime TD picks in Week 4.
PRO Props Pick: Gabe Davis to Score a TD (+410)
Best Touchdown Props for Broncos vs. Jets
Lastly, Broncos RB Tyler Badie is our long shot of the week.
Badie was the standout among the Broncos’ running backs last week. His odds to score are a whopping +900 vs. the Jets, implying a mere 10% chance.
Yet, PRO Projections give him a 14% chance, offering a 4% edge. If you’re feeling adventurous, Badie could be a rewarding bet for your touchdown picks this Sunday.
PRO Props Pick: Tyler Badie to Score a TD (+900)
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