The Action PRO touchdown tool was quiet all week for touchdown picks in Texans vs. Cowboys. But due to pricing and our latest projections update, there’s now a pick our expert NFL betting models show value on to score a TD on Monday Night Football.
The Texans are big favorites against the Cowboys in Jerry World, with an over/under just north of 40.
Sunday’s eight, data-driven TD picks we released using NFL PRO data racked up +9.4 units. Here’s tonight’s TD pick for Texans vs. Cowboys, which is now a strong enough bet to green light a prediction.
NFL Touchdown Picks for Monday Night Football: Texans vs. Cowboys Predictions
PRO TD picks have crushed on prime-time games lately.
Tanner Hudson (+1000) was a Week 9 Thursday Night Football winner, as was John Metchie III (+1000) on Sunday Night Football.
Yesterday, Will Dissly (+420/+425) was a projection edge, too.
Here’s a spoiler for tonight’s PRO touchdown model pick in Texans vs. Cowboys: It’s a Dallas player.
The Action Analytics team finds touchdown edges through route participation, injury news, and more. Tonight’s pick is all about capitalizing on odds.
Monday Night Football’s pick to click is wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. Scanning a variety of sportsbooks, Lamb is priced south of +200 to score a touchdown at any point.
However, FanDuel’s odds for Lamb to score are +250. Those odds imply the market’s giving Lamb a 28.5% chance to score.
Action TD data is much higher on a CeeDee TD, pricing the fair odds at about +150 and a TD 40% of the time.
PRO Projections rule of thumb is the edge must be 3.5% or better before recommending bettors tail, if they’re only using our projections.
Following this rule of thumb, our prediction for Lamb is a touchdown 40% of the time. Bettors need at least +174 price, which implies 36.5% (a 3.5% edge off our forecast of 40%).
Also, our own Gilles Gallant likes Lamb to get in the end zone, bolstering the case for a pick tonight.
PRO TD Projections Pick: CeeDee Lamb TD (+250)
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