nfl-touchdown-picks-11-28

NFL Touchdown Picks: Bears vs Lions, Giants vs Cowboys, Dolphins vs Packers

Happy Thanksgiving! We’re unveiling our cutting-edge, Action PRO touchdown tool for all three NFL games Thursday.

Below, you’ll find premium betting selections and expert-driven touchdown projections for Bears vs. Lions, Giants vs. Cowboys, and Dolphins vs. Packers.

Overall, six touchdown picks make the cut as bets bets for Thanksgiving Week 13.

The strongest touchdown picks Thursday — simply using PRO data engineered by the Action Analytics Team — feature predictions on a +1300 longshot early, a backup running back, and more data-fueled anytime touchdown scorers.

Not only will we cover the smartest plays, but we’ll also offer insights on finding the best odds for Thursday’s TD picks.


NFL Touchdown Picks: Bears vs. Lions, Giants vs. Cowboys, Dolphins vs. Packers

Projections recommend tailing picks with a 3.5% edge or better.

Overall, we have three picks for Bears vs. Lions in the early window. Giants vs. Cowboys in the afternoon, meanwhile, features a prediction on a stud receiver.

Finally, advanced models flagged two touchdown bets for Dolphins vs. Packers in the late game.

Bears vs. Lions TD Predictions

Expert projections will have bettors on their seats at high noon when the Bears and Lions kick off Thanksgiving’s slate.

Not only is the +1300 pick in the first game – it’s one of the largest edges of the week so far!

Chicago and Detroit are both deep in the skill corps. Yet, don’t forget about Lions QB Jared Goff in Detroit’s high-powered offense.

Goff admittedly doesn’t have a rushing touchdown in 2024. However, the Lions offense is constantly in the red zone, and overall racking up rushing touchdowns at a historic rate.

Projections don’t have Goff scoring often – just 13% of the time.

However, odds of +1300 at Caesars Sportsbook imply Goff scores about 7% of the time. Frankly, the price is too long for an offense consistently in striking distance like the Lions, who have yet to really unveil a Goff surprise in the red area.

PRO Projections Pick: Jared Goff Touchdown (+1300)


Switching gears to the Bears offense, WR Keenan Allen is a pick.

The veteran slot receiver put up a nice state line last week: nine grabs, 86 yards and a touchdown.

Action Analytics project Allen to score about 1/3 of the time vs. the Lions, which implies a fair price of about +202.

Bet365 prices Allen at +333, which offers another excellent grade for TD picks Thursday.

PRO Projections Pick: Keenan Allen Touchdown (+333)


Another Bears WR highlighted by projections is rookie Rome Odunze.

He’s on a long touchdown draught, prompting his price to reach as high as +375 (bet365) to score this week vs. the Lions.

Despite not scoring his Week 3, Odunze’s still forecasted for a solid outlook from projections, as we predict the WR3 for a 28% chance to score.

Odunze looked outmatched early in the season, especially struggling to separate. However, he has great hands and is slowly getting more comfortable. He’s also racked up 10 or more targets in back-to-back games.

PRO Projections Pick: Rome Odunze Touchdown (+375)


Giants vs. Cowboys TD Predictions

Sticking with rookie recievers, Giants WR Malik Nabers takes the cake as top edge for Giants vs. Cowboys.

Action PRO Projections give Nabers about a 39% probability to score at AT&T Stadium on Thursday. However, his top price in the market (+250, DraftKings) reflects the market giving Nabers less than a 30% chance.

PRO Projections Pick: Malik Nabers Touchdown (+250)


Dolphins vs. Packers TD Predictions

In the late window, Dolphins backup RB Jaylen Wright is a pick for the second time in three weeks.

The rookie’s slowly eating into Raheem Mostert‘s carries and earning time in the Fins backfield.

Wright’s +700 at BetMGM, which implies a 12.5% chance. We’re higher on the rookie to score, predicting an anytime TD at 18%.

PRO Projections Pick: Jaylen Wright Touchdown (+700)


Meanwhile, WR Christian Watson marks the best bet of any Packer.

Romeo Doubs is banged up in Green Bay’s receiving corps, so our projections lend an edge to Watson.

Our projection is a touchdown 41% of the time. FanDuel’s price of +230 is closer to 31%.

PRO Projections Pick: Christian Watson Touchdown (+230)


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