I’ve documented a grand total of 10 touchdown picks from Action PRO Projections priced at +700 or higher the last month. Those picks are an excellent 4-6, and a 1-unit bettor would be up about 39 units.
Therefore, we’re promoting our state-of-the-art PRO NFL touchdown predictor for Sunday, Week 11, and previewing two longshot picks that have a legitimate chance.
NFL PRO Projections flagged a couple of touchdown scorers with big edges Sunday, at +850 and +900. Crunching the odds for the parlay crowd, a 2-leg bet on both picks would pay out +9400.
You can check out Sunday’s holy grail of Week 11 anytime touchdown predictions from advanced PRO data here. Eight picks are featured at +300 or higher.
Below, a pair of players at longshot odds are being slept on.
NFL Touchdown Odds Week 11: Data-Driven Longshot Picks, Parlay
In Week 6, projections were all over Bucs RB Sean Tucker (+700) to score, setting off the figurative money train. Two weeks later, Xavier Gipson (+1800) was Action Analytics Team’s sleeper pick to score a TD.
Last week, expert projections accurately predicted Tanner Hudson (+1000) and John Metchie III (+1000) to score touchdowns. It was Hudson’s first of the season and first of Metchie’s career!
Our experts’ ability to capitalize on injuries and predict breakout performances is second to none.
The top longshot picks for NFL Week 11, meanwhile, feature predictions in the Jaguars vs. Lions and Bengals vs. Chargers games.
Let’s start with the early-window start between Jacksonville and Detroit, where a key injury opens up a mispriced prop.
Lions tight end Sam Laporta is out for Week 11. Crunching the odds, our projections flagged wide receiver Kalif Raymond as a solid bet the market is not respecting.
Raymond is +850 to score at FanDuel, implying about a 10.5% chance. Action PRO models give Raymond closer to a 16% chance.
Raymond is the WR3 in the Lions’ offense but could see more of a role with LaPorta out.
PRO TD Projections Pick: Kalif Raymond TD (+850)
Secondly, we transition to Sunday Night Football for Bengals vs. Chargers.
For the third week in a row, PRO Projections love Tanner Hudson.
Cincinnati’s tight end is +900 to score, a fair probability of 10%. Our forecast is much more optimistic, showing a fair prediction of a 17% chance for Hudson to score anytime.
Hudson came through for us last week, and he’s a pick to score again on primetime.
PRO TD Projections Pick: Tanner Hudson TD (+900)
As a firm believer in Action PRO Projections, I also parlayed both picks at FanDuel for 0.15u, a payout of +9400.
Parlay Price: +9400
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