Sunday morning update: Jacksonville put a scare into the hearts of the 15 to 20% of players who took the Bengals on Thursday, but they survived to Week 5.
With both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones ruled out, that solidifies my choice NOT to take the Titans this week against the lowly Jets. Buffalo and Tennessee will be the two most popular options on Sunday and I still want to avoid both.
The Jameis Winston experience can be frightening, but I am sticking with my choice of the Saints on Sunday against the Giants.
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Editor’s note: The following was written before Thursday Night Football.
Another NFL week in the books, another week survived.
In Week 2, I liked the Panthers, who were able to stay undefeated with a win over the Texans on Thursday Night Football. If you missed the Carolina pick, I suggested Baltimore on Sunday, and the Ravens won with ease — no need to check the box score or highlights, trust me, they won handily.
I joke, but if you are ignoring or missing the Thursday games, you are leaving an option (and possibly money) on the table that could be the best of the week. So set a reminder on those phones to check every Wednesday instead of waiting until Sunday morning to make sure you aren’t missing out on any Thursday night victories.
With that reminder out of the way, here are the projected win percentages for every remaining game through Week 17:
NFL Survivor Pool Options
As I do throughout the season, here are the top options for Week 4 with some key statistics to help make the best decision.
The Bills have the best chance to win this week and the highest expected value. Slam dunk choice, right? Lee Corso voice Not so fast, my friend.
Buffalo has the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the league. The Bills still get to play the Jets twice! And there are tons of other opportunities to use them throughout the season, so I want to keep them in my back pocket for later weeks.
The other popular choice is the team playing the aforementioned Jets: The Titans. I expect around 30% of entries to be on Tennessee this week, so that’s a game I want to avoid. The Titans could be without wide receivers A.J.Brown and Julio Jones this week, and while that might not matter in the end, that game could be closer than we expect.
NFL Survivor Pick For Week 4
Saints (vs. Giants)
1 p.m. ET on Sunday
This is the easiest projected game remaining on the Saints’ schedule and they should be less than 5% picked this week.
That contrarian value could pay off if one of the popular picks goes down, and if not, it still allows you to keep Buffalo for a week with limited options in the future.
