We expected a large chunk of the field to get eliminated last week and that is exactly what happened.
Four of the six most popular picks lost (Cardinals, Panthers, Chargers, and Falcons) and the Steelers were lucky to slide past the Jaguars as well.
Unfortunately, I know a lot of readers went down with the Chargers last week (as did I). While I am disappointed in the result, I am not disappointed in the process.
Had I known New Orleans would win by a billion, I might have chosen otherwise, but given the information I had at the time I can live with the decision.
But enough about last week. If you are reading this, that means you are likely alive and need some advice. Let’s look at the win percentages for every game remaining in the season.
I normally look for teams with at least a 70% win percentage, but I expanded the list because I know options are running thin this late in the season.
Here are the best options for Week 12:
We have the same two teams at the top as last week. The Chargers face the Cardinals at home, while the Ravens get the Raiders traveling cross-country for an early game on Sunday.
Both of these teams are clearly in great spots to secure a win but you could also save either one for future weeks.
In Week 14, the Chargers get a home game against the Bengals. In Week 15, the Ravens get a home game against the Buccaneers.
The Colts have been cruising along under the radar and are now big home favorites against the Dolphins.
Thursday games have been tough on road teams which gives New Orleans a boost here against Atlanta.
If you are really stuck and don’t have any of the options above, I think the Buccaneers are a good contrarian play. It isn’t pretty, but getting the 49ers at home is about as good as it gets for any team.
The only team I generally dislike this week is Dallas.
The general public and betting market tend to overreact to backup quarterbacks and I think that’s the case here with Colt McCoy starting for Washington.
The Pick: Indianapolis Colts
In a vacuum, I think the Colts are the best pick this week. This would assume you are in a large pool and would need either the Chargers or Ravens in later weeks to get through Week 17.
Not every case is the same, though. Some of you in smaller pools will want to take either the Chargers or Ravens, especially if you can determine that your competitors do not have those options available.
If you have a question about your scenario, hit me up on Twitter @BetLabsTravis. I’d love to help you win your pool, even if I can’t win mine.
