The 2018 NFL Regular season comes to an end today. On behalf of the Action Network, thank you for following our Sharp Reports all season long. The next time you read one of these columns, we’ll be breaking down playoff games. In the immortal words of the great philosopher Bart Scott, “Can’t Wait!”
In case you didn’t know, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.
They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven.
Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force bookmakers to move the lines.
By using the betting tools available at The Action Network and Sports Insights, we can track how sharps are affecting betting lines for every NFL game.
Which teams and over/unders are the wiseguys eyeing in Week 17?
>> All odds as of 5:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
- Sharp angle: Titans (+3.5)
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
Of all the Week 17 games, this one is by far the most important. The winner punches their ticket to the postseason, the loser goes home. No wonder the NFL flexed this game to primetime.
Despite both teams boasting 9-6 records and the Titans enjoying home field advantage, the public is loading up on Andrew Luck and the road favorite Colts. The sharps see a prime opportunity to capitalize on public bias and buy low on the Titans.
This line opened at Indy -2.5. Heavy public betting pushed this line to the key number of -3 and briefly to -3.5. That’s when wiseguys got down hard on Mike Vrabel’s crew.
We’ve tracked nine separate steam and reverse line moves on the Titans, with the vast majority of moves coming at Tennessee +3.5. This means the hook is critical, with sharps predicting a close game.
The Titans have excellent contrarian value, as they’re only getting 25% of bets in what will be the most heavily bet game of the day on Sunday Night Football.
UPDATE (5 p.m. ET): Marcus Mariota was downgraded to doubtful (stinger) early Sunday morning (Blaine Gabbert will start in Mariota’s place). As a result of the injury news, the Colts have moved from -3 to -5.5.
However, sharps aren’t abandoning the Titans. Wiseguys are still getting down on Tennessee plus the points, looking to capitalize on the public overreacting to the QB switch.
At 4:19 p.m. ET sharps hammered Tennessee +5.5, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves. This overload of smart money has dropped the Titans back down to +5.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
- Sharp angle: Under (45.5)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
On the surface, the betting percentages and line movement look pretty standard for this over/under. The total opened at 44 and currently 70% of bets are taking the over. As a result of this lopsided betting, oddsmakers have adjusted the total up to 45.5.
However, a closer look shows sneaky sharp action on the under. Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on the under.
Early on, sharps hit under 45 once and then under 44.5 twice. Once some late buyback pushed the total back up, that’s when sharps got down hard again on the under 45.5.
Why do sharps love this under?
First, we’re expecting some big crosswinds (13-15 mph) on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Our Bet Labs data shows the under has hit at a 55.5% clip when wind speeds are 10 mph or more, winning more than 60 units since 2003.
Also, this is a classic divisional under. When two teams in the same division play each other, the built in familiarity leads to lower scoring games, especially late in the season. This under matches a profitable Bet Labs PRO system that is 62.1% since 2003.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
- Sharp angle: Redskins (+7)
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
This game means much more for Eagles than it does for the Redskins.
The Eagles (8-7) need to win and have the Vikings lose in order to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Redskins (7-8) have nothing to play for and start journeyman Josh Johnson under center.
This game opened at Eagles -7 and nearly 80% of bets are laying the points. However, we’ve seen this line remain stagnant throughout the week (it even briefly dipped to -6.5). The fact that it hasn’t moved to -8 or higher signals a sharp line freeze, with oddsmakers worried about Redskins liability.
We’ve tracked seven different steam and reverse line moves on the Skins at either +7 or +7.5, with only one conflicting play on the Eagles.
The Skins are a divisional dog with a low total (41.5) and also find themselves in prime fade the public territory, as they’re only getting 24% of bets (but 32% of dollars). This season, dogs getting less than 30% of bets have gone 61.5% against the spread.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Sharp angle: Under (moved from 47.5 to 45.5)
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
Public bettors don’t know which way to go with this over/under. But wiseguys have made up their minds.
This total opened at 47.5 and bets are split right down the middle, 50/50. However, we’ve seen this line fall to 45.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So what caused this downward movement?
As always, follow the money.
Currently 95% of dollars are taking the under, signaling overwhelming smart money. Early on, sharps steamed the under 47.5. We haven’t noticed any conflicting over moves (or buyback).
This under also matches the Bet Labs PRO Divisional Unders system (62.1% since 2003).
An added bonus for wiseguys sweating the under: Steelers offensive star Antonio Brown may not play due a knee injury.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
- Sharp angle: Under (50 to 48.5)
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
Sharps and squares (casual bettors who bet for fun) seem to be on the same page with this over/under.
The total opened at a relatively high 50. Currently 68% of bets and 86% of dollars are taking the under, evidence of heavy $5 average Joe bets, but also big money from respected players.
Sharps steamed the under 50 and under 49. This overload of sharp action forced bookmakers to drop the total down to 48.5. The under 48.5 is juiced up to -115, signaling it may fall even further.
Once again, this under matches the profitable Bet Labs PRO Divisional Under system.
An added bonus for under backers: offensive juggernaut Todd Gurley has been ruled out for this matchup.
