NFL SGP picks might be popular among bettors during the Divisional Round and sportsbooks are taking note.
For example, DraftKings is offering a Divisional No Sweat bet for this weekend’s games, and don’t be surprised if more sportsbooks follow suit as well.
With this in mind, I used Action PRO’s NFL prop projections, powered by Sean Koerner, to build a three-leg SGP that combines two of the biggest player prop edges for the Divisional Round with the single-largest anytime touchdown edge, resulting in a parlay pick that pays out at 14-1 odds.
So whether you’re looking to satisfy a no-sweat pick, using a bonus bet or simply want an SGP to root on this weekend, here’s a tight three-legger for Texans vs. Chiefs in Saturday’s Divisional Round matchup.
A 14-1 NFL SGP Pick for Texans vs. Chiefs
*Odds as of Friday morning
NFL SGP Leg No. 1: Dalton Schultz Over/Under 3.5 Receptions
Let’s start with Texans tight end Dalton Schultz.
Schultz’s current receptions over/under is listed a 3.5 at DraftKings, though PRO’s projections are a bit lower at 3.2.
But the real value comes via the vig as Schultz’s under is priced at +135 on top of PRO’s raw projection of 3.2 catches, translating to a 17.7% edge.
PRO Pick: Schultz Under 3.5 (+135) Receptions
NFL SGP Leg No. 2: Hollywood Brown Over/Under 3.5 Receptions
Hollywood Brown’s over/under is set at 3.5 catches as well, with the under’s price of +130 very close to that of Schultz, though PRO’s projection of 3.4 receptions shortens our edge a bit.
Still, a 12.4% edge for Brown finishing with three or fewer catches is a very worthy SGP leg, so let’s go ahead and lock this in.
PRO Pick: Brown Under 3.5 (+130) Receptions
NFL SGP Leg No. 3: Xavier Worthy Anytime TD
To top off this three-leg SGP let’s turn to Action PRO’s anytime TD projections.
The biggest TD edge on the board, as of the time of writing, is Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy to find paydirt.
PRO’s data puts Worth at 0.48 TDs against the Texans, making this a very nice value when compared to his +205 odds to score.
PRO Pick: Worthy (+205) to Score an Anytime TD
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