nfl-props-commanders-vs-eagles-thursday-night-football

NFL Props for Eagles vs. Commanders on Thursday Night Football

The Philadelphia Eagles face the Washington Commanders in a Thursday Night Football clash between the two teams atop the NFC East.

My top player prop for this one features a bet on Brian Robinson Jr. in his return to action, while my model is also showing value on a unique prop for Thursday night’s game.

Let’s dive in.

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Brian Robinson Jr. Under 12.5 Rush Attempts (-105)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/was.png” awayname=”Washington Commanders” awayslug=”washington-commanders” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png” homename=”Philadelphia Eagles” homeslug=”philadelphia-eagles” date=”Thursday, Nov. 14″ time=”8:15 p.m. ET” network=”Prime Video” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”DraftKings”][/gameheader]

Brian Robinson Jr. missed the Commanders‘ last two games, but he’s back in action Thursday night. That said, I wouldn’t expect full usage in his return from the hamstring injury.

The Eagles hold possession for over 32 minutes per game, which is the highest of any opponent Robinson has faced this year. The Philadelphia defense has also held opponents to 6% lower early-down success rate relative to Washington’s last five opponents. That likely entails more 3rd-and-long situations for the Commanders, and thus less opportunities for Robinson.

With Washington listed as 4-point underdogs, a pass-heavy game script becomes more likely. The Commanders are 6-1 in games Robinson has played this year, but Thursday will likely force Washington into a game script that doesn’t feature the young running back as heavily.

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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1400)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/was.png” awayname=”Washington Commanders” awayslug=”washington-commanders” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png” homename=”Philadelphia Eagles” homeslug=”philadelphia-eagles” date=”Thursday, Nov. 14″ time=”8:15 p.m. ET” network=”Prime Video” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”FanDuel”][/gameheader]

Why am I showing value on this game going to overtime? Games with this spread and total combination in which the home team is favored tend to go overtime at an above-average rate.

When the home team is favored between a field goal and a touchdown and the total is within a field goal of the current consensus of 49.5, the game has gone to OT 8.6% of the time (since the NFL changed the extra point rule).

Both the Commanders and Eagles have kickers that are right around league average on extra points, which shouldn’t have a significant impact on this average OT rate. Moreover, having two teams that convert on 3rd- or 4th-and-short at a 7% higher rate than league average is a good sign for these teams being able to convert a 2-point conversion when necessary to come back from scores like 8 or 11.

My model has the fair value for overtime on Thursday Night Football at +1135, so I think there’s value at +1400. That said, my upper 95% confidence interval is at +1245, so I wouldn’t bet this below +1250.

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