NFL Predictions Week 8: Expert Data-Driven Picks for Sunday Afternoon

Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with six NFL predictions for Week 8.

The data-driven NFL picks for Week 8 include include three bets for Cardinals vs Dolphins, with the return of Tua Tagovailoa playing a big factor in the betting predictions. The other games targeted include the Ravens vs Browns AFC North clash, plus Bills vs Seahawks and Panthers vs Broncos.

NFL Predictions Week 8

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Arizona Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Miami Dolphins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png”][/teammatchup]	1 p.m.	Dolphins Team Total Over 25.5 (-110)
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Arizona Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Miami Dolphins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png”][/teammatchup]	1 p.m.	Cardinals-Dolphins Highest Scoring Game (+950)
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Arizona Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Miami Dolphins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png”][/teammatchup]	1 p.m.	Malik Washington Anytime TD (+1300)
[teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Baltimore Ravens” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Browns” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png”][/teammatchup]	1 p.m.	Cedric Tillman Receiving Yards Ladder
[teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Buffalo Bills” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” secondfullname=”Seattle Seahawks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sea.png”][/teammatchup]	4:05 p.m.	Jason Myers & Tyler Bass Kicker Props
[teammatchup link=”#6″ firstfullname=”Carolina Panthers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png” secondfullname=”Denver Broncos” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/den.png”][/teammatchup]	4:25 p.m.	Broncos D/ST Anytime TD (+500
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Cardinals vs Dolphins Team Total Bet”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Dolphins Team Total Over 25.5 (-110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” awayname=”Arizona Cardinals” awayslug=”arizona-cardinals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png” homename=”Miami Dolphins” homeslug=”miami-dolphins” date=”Sunday, Oct. 27″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Nick Giffen

Tua Tagovailoa is set to return at QB for the Dolphins, which gives them a big boost against a Cardinals defense that’s been rather suspect against the pass, ranking 29th by DVOA.

In games Tagovailoa has started since last year, the Dolphins have produced an average Expected Score of 25 points. That improves to an Expected Score of 27 points in home games, even if we count the Dolphins’ home contest against the Bills earlier this year as a full Tagovailoa game (it wasn’t) – Miami produced an Expected Score of just 17.2 points.

Miami, both with and without Tagovailoa, has been unlucky in the scoring department as well, producing 38.9 points under expectation, or nearly 6.5 per game, including 4.3 fewer than expected in two Tagovailoa starts.

Meanwhile, Arizona’s defense has been lucky to give up only 178 points compared to the nearly 199 allowed by Expected Score.

Add it all up, and Miami has the highest Luck Team Total of the week at +9.5.

Pick: Dolphins Team Total Over 25.5 (-110)

[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227449″ date=”20241027″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]

[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Arizona Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Miami Dolphins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Arizona Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Miami Dolphins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Arizona Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Miami Dolphins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Baltimore Ravens” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Browns” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#5″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Buffalo Bills” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” secondfullname=”Seattle Seahawks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sea.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#6″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Carolina Panthers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png” secondfullname=”Denver Broncos” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/den.png”][/teammatchup]

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Billy Ward’s Highest Scoring Game Pick”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Cardinals-Dolphins Highest Scoring Game (+950)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” awayname=”Arizona Cardinals” awayslug=”arizona-cardinals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png” homename=”Miami Dolphins” homeslug=”miami-dolphins” date=”Sunday, Oct. 27″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Billy Ward

It’s a fun week for my favorite market, with nine of the 14 eligible games featuring totals between 45 and 50.

I typically stay away from the highest total game on principle as the payoff usually doesn’t justify the risk. I also skip past games that are likely to be one-sided. They can get to the over, but without both teams putting up points it’s hard for them to go much beyond that.

That leaves me with just a few games left, my favorite of which is Cardinals vs Dolphins. My colleague Nick Giffen laid out the case for the Dolphins side of things with his team total pick – the return of Tua Tagovailoa and some likely scoring luck regression are working for the Dolphins.

Arizona can put up points, too, especially against a Dolphins defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA. They also play fast, with a top-12 ranking in both overall and neutral script (within 7 points) pace.

Factor all that together, and we have a game with massive potential if Arizona’s offense is clicking. The Cards have been inconsistent, but it’s a solid spot, and they have all of their weaponry back as well.

Pick: Cardinals-Dolphins Highest Scoring Game (+950)

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Malik Washington Player Props”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Malik Washington Anytime TD (+1300)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” awayname=”Arizona Cardinals” awayslug=”arizona-cardinals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png” homename=”Miami Dolphins” homeslug=”miami-dolphins” date=”Sunday, Oct. 27″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Nick Giffen

With wideout and return man Braxton Berrios out for the season, next in line is rookie Malik Washington, who is slated to handle an increased role in the Dolphins offense. He will also take over both kick- and punt-return duties.

That gives Washington some extra TD upside against the Cardinals, who are 10th-worst against punt returns and third-worst against kickoff returns by DVOA.

Offensively, Washington is a slot-type receiver who has some Wes Welker-like traits. He should thrive against zone coverage, of which Arizona plays slightly more than league average.

With Tagovailoa back in the fold and Miami having a +9.5 Luck Team Total, we could see a bucket of points from the Dolphins.

Arizona ranks 29th defensively against the pass, and Washington may also get a rushing attempt or two as well.

That opportunity on an offense that projects to put up points – plus return duties – is worth an anytime TD bet at anything in or near the double-digit-odds range.

Pick: Malik Washington Anytime TD (+1300)

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Ravens vs Browns Best Bet: Cedric Tillman Receiving Yards”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Cedric Tillman Receiving Yards Ladder” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” awayname=”Baltimore Ravens” awayslug=”baltimore-ravens” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png” homename=”Cleveland Browns” homeslug=”cleveland-browns” date=”Sunday, Oct. 27″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Billy Ward

There’s a lot of moving parts in the Browns passing offense. First, they traded away Amari Cooper, who accounted for 23% of their targets through six weeks. Then, woefully ineffective quarterback Deshaun Watson was lost for the year due to an injury, with Jameis Winston taking his place.

That means not only are there plenty of targets to be had, but some of them might even be downfield and/or catchable, which wasn’t the case with Watson under center.

With all of that uncertainty I want to lean into the broad range of outcomes for the Cleveland offense. I’m bullish on the passing attack in general. The Browns rank sixth in Pass Rate Over Expectation on the season, and Baltimore has faced the fourth-highest pass attempts in the league.

I’m also excited about Tillman specifically. Last week, with a variety of quarterbacks mixed in, he caught eight of 12 targets for 81 yards.

That was as many targets as Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore combined – though Winston did target Jeudy on three of his first five passes.

I could make a similar case for Jeudy as well, but the price is slightly better on Tillman.

Picks: Cedric Tillman Receiving Yards Ladder

40+ receiving yards -115 (.6u)
50+ yards +134 (.2u)
70+ yards +285 (.1u)
100+ yards +800 (.1u)

[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227456″ date=”20241027″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bills vs Seahawks Kicker Props”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Jason Myers & Tyler Bass Kicker Props” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” awayname=”Buffalo Bills” awayslug=”buffalo-bills” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sea.png” homename=”Seattle Seahawks” homeslug=”seattle-seahawks” date=”Sunday, Oct. 27″ time=”4:05 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Nick Giffen

Weather will be a factor in this game – current forecasts project 15 mph winds with gusts in the 20s in a south-to-north direction.

That perfectly aligns with Lumen Field’s orientation, meaning half the time kicking from distance is going to be impossible.

There’s also a 100% chance of rain, which will also negatively affect kicking percentage.

Based off this being a Luck Under, I’m expecting fewer trips to the end zone than expected, so I’ll take Tyler Bass’s under on his extra points.

For Myers, since Seattle goes for it on fourth down at an above-average clip, and may need to even more as the underdog – or potentially go for two if trailing – I’ll back his under on kicking points since both aspects of kicking could take a hit.

Pick: Jason Myers & Tyler Bass Kicker Props

Jason Myers under 6.5 kicking points +112 (FanDuel)
Tyler Bass under 2.5 extra-points made -120 (DraftKings or BetMGM)

[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227457″ date=”20241027″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Panthers vs Broncos Long-Shot Anytime TD Pick”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Broncos D/ST Anytime TD (+500)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png” awayname=”Carolina Panthers” awayslug=”carolina-panthers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/den.png” homename=”Denver Broncos” homeslug=”denver-broncos” date=”Sunday, Oct. 27″ time=”4:25 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Billy Ward

At first glance, getting “just” 5-1 odds on a defense to score a touchdown doesn’t seem great.

Then you look at the defense and opposing quarterback in question. Denver’s defense has scored in two of its seven games this season, both within the last three weeks. Those came against the Spencer Rattler-led Saints and the Raiders with Gardner Minshew.

The Panthers are giving the ball back to Bryce Young this week after Andy Dalton sprained his thumb in a car accident. Young’s clearly worse and more mistake prone quarterback than Rattler or Minshew, with three interceptions and six sacks taken in his two starts this season.

Depending on your metric of choice, the Panthers’ offensive line is either no better, or somewhat worse than the other team’s units as well. That’s a problem against a Broncos team that ranks second in the NFL in both total sacks and adjusted sack rate.

For a fun longer-shot bet, the Broncos to record a safety at +1400 is also interesting. It’s probably not a +EV bet given the rarity of safeties, but the odds are considerably better here than the typical NFL game.

Pick: Broncos D/ST Anytime TD (+500)

[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227459″ date=”20241027″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]