NFL Predictions Week 7: Expert Data-Driven Picks for Sunday Afternoon

Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with five NFL predictions for Week 7.

The data-driven NFL picks include a spread pick for Patriots vs Jaguars in London, plus a number of player props for Kyren Williams, David Njoku and more.

NFL Predictions Week 7

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”New England Patriots” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ne.png” secondfullname=”Jacksonville Jaguars” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png”][/teammatchup]	9:30 a.m.	Patriots +6 (-110)
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Cincinnati Bengals” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cin.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Browns” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png”][/teammatchup]	1 p.m.	David Njoku Anytime TD (+375)
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Detroit Lions” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Vikings” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png”][/teammatchup]	1 p.m.	Highest Scoring Team on Sunday: Lions (+1600)
[teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Houston Texans” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/hou.png” secondfullname=”Green Bay Packers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/gb.png”][/teammatchup]	1 p.m.	Brandon McManus Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-105)
[teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Las Vegas Raiders” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/oak.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Rams” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/la.png”][/teammatchup]	4:05 p.m.	Kyren Williams Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-114)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Billy Ward’s Patriots vs Jaguars Spread Pick”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Patriots +6″ league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ne.png” awayname=”New England Patriots” awayslug=”new-england-patriots” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png” homename=”Jacksonville Jaguars” homeslug=”jacksonville-jaguars” date=”Sunday, Oct. 20″ time=”9:30 a.m. ET” network=”NFL Network” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Billy Ward

I’m buying in on the Drake Maye hype.

While the rookie didn’t pick up a win in his first start, he showed plenty of promise against a tough Texans defense. Maye completed more than 60% of his passes with a solid 7.40 yards per attempt — New England put up its highest point total of the year with 21.

Now he has an extra week of experience under his belt in a much better matchup against the Jaguars, who are last in defensive DVOA. In comparison, Houston ranks second in the league.

Given the stats of the Jaguars offense – they rank 23rd at 8.8 points per game – and the 42-point total, it will be hard for Jacksonville to cover the six-point spread if the Patriots do anything positive offensively.

I worry a bit about the jet lag factor for the Patriots since Jacksonville stayed in London following their Week 6 game. Still, this is a big number for a bad team to cover, so I’ll take New England in old England.

Pick: Patriots +6

[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227335″ date=”20241020″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]

[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New England Patriots” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ne.png” secondfullname=”Jacksonville Jaguars” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cincinnati Bengals” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cin.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Browns” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Detroit Lions” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Vikings” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Houston Texans” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/hou.png” secondfullname=”Green Bay Packers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/gb.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#5″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Las Vegas Raiders” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/oak.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Rams” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/la.png”][/teammatchup]

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nick Giffen’s Bengals vs Browns Anytime Touchdown Bet”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”David Njoku Anytime TD (+375)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cin.png” awayname=”Cincinnati Bengals” awayslug=”cincinnati-bengals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png” homename=”Cleveland Browns” homeslug=”cleveland-browns” date=”Sunday, Oct. 20″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Nick Giffen

This is simply a case of the price being a bit too long despite a perceived negative matchup as the Bengals rank eighth in defensive DVOA against tight ends.

However, I think the Browns should be able to move the ball on a Cincinnati defense that’s suspect, ranking 22nd overall, including 19th against the pass and 22nd against the run.

The Browns can use the return of Nick Chubb and their ground game to move the ball on the Bengals. All it takes from there is maybe a failed Nick Chubb run inside the 10 and the Browns could be forced into throwing for a TD.

With no Amari Cooper, that opens up the likelihood that David Njoku is the primary — or at worse — secondary option on looks in the end zone.

Given he’s scored a TD at closer to a +300 clip for the Brown since 2021, +375 given the situation is just a bit too long. I’d play this down to +325.

Pick: David Njoku Anytime TD (+375)

[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227355″ date=”20241020″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Billy Ward’s Lions vs Vikings Best Bet”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Highest Scoring Team on Sunday: Lions (+1600)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” awayname=”Detroit Lions” awayslug=”detroit-lions” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png” homename=”Minnesota Vikings” homeslug=”minnesota-vikings” date=”Sunday, Oct. 20″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Billy Ward

I thought about taking the Lions point spread, but I found a better way to approach this one.

The price on the Lions to be the highest scoring team varies from as low as +800 on FanDuel to as high as +1600 at DraftKings and BetMGM. That reflects a fairly wide range of outcomes for the NFL’s highest scoring team.

If Detroit is going to cover +1.5, it likely needs to win outright. While its defense has been fine this season, the unit lost Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Aidan Hutchinson for the season and are taking on a strong Vikings offense.

That means to win the game Detroit will need lots of points. That’s not the case for many of the teams with higher team totals than Detroit coming into the game. Three of those teams (the Commanders, Rams and Bills) are favored by at least a touchdown, while one is the opposing Vikings.

That matters more to me than the quality of the opposing defense, since teams are unlikely to put up big scores in complete blowouts. Most teams, that is. Detroit will happily run the score up 47-9, like it did against the Cowboys.

Pick: Highest Scoring Team on Sunday: Lions (+1600)

[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227357″ date=”20241020″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nick Giffen’s Texans vs Packers Kicker Prop”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Brandon McManus Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-105)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/hou.png” awayname=”Houston Texans” awayslug=”houston-texans” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/gb.png” homename=”Green Bay Packers” homeslug=”green-bay-packers” date=”Sunday, Oct. 20″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Nick Giffen

The Packers turn to veteran kicker Brandon McManus after rookie Brayden Narveson struggled, making just 70.6% of his field goals (all under 50 yards).

McManus doesn’t have the same issues as a career 90% kicker from inside 50. So while his percentage is terrible beyond 50 yards – in part due to attempting some extremely long kicks in the thin air of Denver for nine years – there’s plenty of confidence in him inside 50 yards.

In fact, this was a point Packers coach Rich Bisaccia explicitly pointed out this week, which lets me know he’s comfortable giving McManus his shots.

There should be chances if the Texans’ red-zone defense improves, which they should. They’ve allowed a 69% red-zone touchdown rate, which is unsustainable given their overall great defense (2nd in defensive DVOA). And the Packers go for it on 4th down at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL.

That all adds up to a few shots for McManus. Hopefully he makes them.

Pick: Brandon McManus Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-105)

[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227354″ date=”20241020″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Billy Ward’s Kyren Williams Prop Pick”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Kyren Williams Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-114)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/oak.png” awayname=”Las Vegas Raiders” awayslug=”las-vegas-raiders” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/la.png” homename=”Los Angeles Rams” homeslug=”los-angeles-rams” date=”Sunday, Oct. 20″ time=”4:05 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Billy Ward

Given all of the injuries to their wide receivers, the Rams have had no problem skewing to the run as long as the game flow allows it. In their lone win, they gave Kyren Williams 24 carries, and he picked up in additional 22 in their only loss that was within five points.

Game flow should certainly allow it here — they’re facing a Raiders team that has thrown in the towel on their season by trading away Davante Adams. The Rams are seven-point favorites against a team that’s faced 28.3 rush attempts per game.

While Cooper Kupp may be back for the Rams this week, he’ll almost certainly be limited – especially if the Rams are firmly in control. Plus, the Rams might be down Jordan Whittington at wideout as well.

I’d like this bet even more if both receivers were to miss, but I’ll still take it as long as at least one of them is out.

We have Williams projected for 21.2 carries, so there’s a bit of wiggle room here.

Pick: Kyren Williams Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-114)

[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227360″ date=”20241020″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]